Nate Silver Predicts GOP Senate Win in 2014

[Rstrstx]

25. This far out he certainly can be

Polling is not as rigorous now as it will be later in the year, he's only as good as the data he gets. Even later this year the quality of the polls won't be as good as they are for a presidential election. Thus his results weren't as great in 2010 as they were in 2008 or 2012. He was also off on some close house races in 2012 simply because there wasn't enough high quality polling data.

Even so, if you look at his predictions, the 6th candidate that would flip the Senate he gives a 50% chance of winning. The reason he gives an edge to the Rs is because the lean Ds are in a slightly weaker position than the lean Rs according to the data he has before him. FWIW I believe he had McCain as a favorite of winning in 2008 at a certain point in the summer- I can't confirm this but it should give you an idea of how accurate polling is this far out.

If anything this should motivate Ds to get off their rears and vote this election. Personally the most important reason I can think of for participating this year lies in the Senate, it could prove crucial should there be a SCOTUS nominee. Bills I'm not so worried about; even if the Rs have both houses there's no way they'll be able to override a veto or even a filibuster (well scratch the filibuster idea, the Rs will probably scrap it as soon as they get in).