General Discussion

neffernin

(275 posts)

65. Nate Silver's ability with statistics is second to none

Mon Mar 24, 2014, 05:16 PM

Mar 2014

At least when it comes to this kind of stuff.

To clarify a few things:
1. The results of what he comes up with is actually NOT hard based on polls; polls are just one of the few things that has an effect on what he comes up with. If many of you had bothered to read what he said, he explains it to the nth degree. Many Senate races including the biggest ones have had few polls. If anything, the fact that the majority of races are in heavy GOP states and Obama is an "unpopular president" seemed to have more of an effect on his predictions. I'd hate to say it, but there hasn't been much of any good news coming from any government for....ever now and it is hardly uncommon for the president to get much of the blame (especially when the GOP is continuously pointing fingers at him).

2. Just because his results aren't what you want doesn't mean he's anti-DEM or pro-GOP.

3. How often are closely contested polls accurate this far out? If anything, his blog is a barometer for where things are at now.

Lastly, lets hope that he isn't right (like he was for 2012 50/50 and for Seattle winning the SB). While I'm pretty bullish about Democratic chances for keeping the presidency in 2016, nothing scares me more than a GOP house, president, and senate.

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For fucks sake ...get out and vote Dem ...fuck Nate Silver! [View all] L0oniX Mar 2014 OP

I intend to....nt Wounded Bear Mar 2014 #1

Don't curse Nate. Thank him for the "or else" necessity of our GOTV efforts. Loudly Mar 2014 #2

zackly trof Mar 2014 #72

Its part of the GOP voter supression strategy. JoePhilly Mar 2014 #3

I find your incessant complaining about DU to be divisive. rhett o rick Mar 2014 #15

I want all Dems to vote straight DEM ticket. Do you? JoePhilly Mar 2014 #18

I resent that you asked that question. It appears to me that you are trying real hard rhett o rick Mar 2014 #24

I was describing a reality on DU, not describing you or how you vote. JoePhilly Mar 2014 #33

+1 DCBob Mar 2014 #35

I always question those among us that believe that only they can really see reality. rhett o rick Mar 2014 #38

I did not say what you just claimed I said. JoePhilly Mar 2014 #63

Awomen! What Joe said.... VanillaRhapsody Mar 2014 #101

Rec JohnnyRingo Mar 2014 #55

The Combustible Hair Club ... JoePhilly Mar 2014 #70

Projection. Those that panic when someone doesnt march lock-step with their leaders, now that's rhett o rick Mar 2014 #96

I think that you are the divisive one lillypaddle Mar 2014 #138

Never questioning the President, never holding him accountable, that's lock-step. nm rhett o rick Mar 2014 #139

I agree lillypaddle Mar 2014 #160

You are right on Joe lillypaddle Mar 2014 #137

I think he's asking a very valid question. nt Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #91

Asking me if I vote only for Democrats is insinuating that there might be a chance that I dont. rhett o rick Mar 2014 #97

ok nt Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #106

Lots of people here claim they'll vote Green or some other JoePhilly Mar 2014 #127

Well said. nt Bobbie Jo Mar 2014 #29

I want all elected Dems to vote for and advocate straight DEM positions NoOneMan Mar 2014 #126

You think it doesn't happen here??? Katashi_itto Mar 2014 #107

Are you suggesting that Nate Silver is a part of some kind of conspiracy to totodeinhere Mar 2014 #51

No, but its being framed as I describe when its reported. JoePhilly Mar 2014 #66

Yes Nate went out of his way to say that Republicans are only slightly favored at this totodeinhere Mar 2014 #82

The way the media frames it is part of the GOP voter supression JoePhilly Mar 2014 #129

Now that you said that Nate is not involved I agree with you. But your totodeinhere Mar 2014 #140

I think he's suggesting that Nate Silver seems to have diehard fans pushing him to stardom Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #92

That is not the impression that I got from his comment. n/t totodeinhere Mar 2014 #99

Nate's predictions are based on current polls. His system doesn't predict changes in polls. reformist2 Mar 2014 #4

Yes and Nate has said that in so many words himself. I don't look at this as doom and gloom totodeinhere Mar 2014 #54

Unless he predicts Dems to win... South_Street Mar 2014 #5

Nah. Look at this article. It the title bashes Dems but when you read the article, it's a different Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #93

Yes! Don't depend on some suit on a show for the results Rex Mar 2014 #6

Kick and Rec. Too many Eeyore's. FSogol Mar 2014 #7

And support Democratic candidates in vulnerable seats! herding cats Mar 2014 #8

Nate has now been called a crackhead and an "asscarrot" since making his forecast Pepper Cat Mar 2014 #9

Another DUer told me he was real smart and good at predictions. Rex Mar 2014 #19

Should I fuck Nate Silver before or after i vote Dem? el_bryanto Mar 2014 #10

Voting Dem IS fucking Nate with his poll. L0oniX Mar 2014 #12

No it's not. Nate is not advocating for Republican votes. He is totodeinhere Mar 2014 #56

His poll? I didn't know Nate had a poll Pepper Cat Mar 2014 #67

You are taking Nate Silver all wrong. He is objective. phleshdef Mar 2014 #75

I found out a while back that I'm not his type BainsBane Mar 2014 #16

We need to do more than that. stillwaiting Mar 2014 #11

How do you explain why Dems have adopted RepubliCon policies? polichick Mar 2014 #14

Because the right has been more effective in making their voices heard BainsBane Mar 2014 #17

I mean in trying to convince people to vote Dem... polichick Mar 2014 #28

Here I'll be campaiging for Jeff Merkley and Peter DeFazio, both just fine with me. Bluenorthwest Mar 2014 #46

Hey there, stillwaiting Mar 2014 #32

Hi! I'm doing well - just trying to kick that sick feeling I got... polichick Mar 2014 #37

"couldn't stomach selling another corporate Dem to anyone" Nailed! L0oniX Mar 2014 #87

+1 redqueen Mar 2014 #31

GOTV 2014! nt MineralMan Mar 2014 #13

Why are you automatically assuming that Nate Silver is "shilling"? SomethingFishy Mar 2014 #20

He's shilling the same way weathermen are Capt. Obvious Mar 2014 #22

Nate isn't destiny supernova Mar 2014 #21

You are a supernova of wisdom! randome Mar 2014 #25

I plan to. Will be helping all I can! JNelson6563 Mar 2014 #23

When you don't like the evidence, swear at it and it will go away? Donald Ian Rankin Mar 2014 #26

Actually it Nate's analysis give republicans a slight edge this far out. It is not the doom and lostincalifornia Mar 2014 #27

Yeh, ignore intelligent, likely Democratic voting guy HERVEPA Mar 2014 #30

Anyone paying attention to Silver should be MORE motivated to vote, not less. Warren DeMontague Mar 2014 #34

Right, how hard is it to get that concept? demwing Mar 2014 #44

This ProudToBeBlueInRhody Mar 2014 #57

But I'm afraid, Bluto. Nate Silver says we won't win. JVS Mar 2014 #36

It's March and the election is in November. Nothing has been decided yet NightWatcher Mar 2014 #39

Who here is saying we should give up? demwing Mar 2014 #40

I hope you are directing your rant at the centrists. rhett o rick Mar 2014 #41

Ok.... Bobbie Jo Mar 2014 #45

Ok I am open for suggestions. We know who the left is. And we know there are those here that rhett o rick Mar 2014 #47

Many of us do all those things, and are Bobbie Jo Mar 2014 #48

You are right of course. I am doing what I rail about in others. rhett o rick Mar 2014 #88

I was bombarded with Dem phone calls for Alex Sink (D). L0oniX Mar 2014 #61

are you suggesting nate purposely skewed the numbers? DCBob Mar 2014 #42

are you suggesting nate purposely skewed the numbers? DCBob Mar 2014 #43

I'd say the 'skewing' comes in presenting 'the numbers' as having any actual Bluenorthwest Mar 2014 #49

Polls are not the only thing Nate bases his forecasts on Pepper Cat Mar 2014 #73

Yes, and I noted that candidate are not even known in many cases Bluenorthwest Mar 2014 #81

... SidDithers Mar 2014 #130

Nate is a good guy. I disagree with saying f*** him. totodeinhere Mar 2014 #50

Damn straight! calimary Mar 2014 #52

Democrats' campaign slogan:The Democratic Registration Advantage WILL BE The Turnout Advantage. ancianita Mar 2014 #53

K&R! This post should have hundreds of recommendations! Enthusiast Mar 2014 #58

Well there are a lot of Nate lovers apparently. L0oniX Mar 2014 #59

Maybe he was right but we can change it starting now. Enthusiast Mar 2014 #64

"Well there are a lot of Nate lovers apparently." Capt. Obvious Mar 2014 #76

I'd be more impressed with this BS if he predicted mikeysnot Mar 2014 #60

Reminds me of that old Italian guy who used to predict the horse races. L0oniX Mar 2014 #62

*sigh* neffernin Mar 2014 #68

Nate Silver's ability with statistics is second to none neffernin Mar 2014 #65

Nate Silver sez... FailureToCommunicate Mar 2014 #69

Nate is pretty accurate so TBF Mar 2014 #71

KICK! Cha Mar 2014 #74

Let's turn Texas blue while we are at it Gothmog Mar 2014 #77

I will be voting for Democrats in 2014 and urging others to do the same. stage left Mar 2014 #78

+1 L0oniX Mar 2014 #84

That's the whole point of the op. GOTV ...in spite of what Miss Cleo says. L0oniX Mar 2014 #108

What was your view of "Mrs Cleo" when he nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #165

My vote is not swayed by polls or Miss Cleo. I can only wish the same goes for other Dems. L0oniX Mar 2014 #167

If you confuse polls with statistical analysis nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #168

Yes! And it's early and even his ever so accurate polls can change treestar Mar 2014 #79

K&R gulliver Mar 2014 #80

You aren't the first person to expose Nate Silver's total incompetence. Jim Lane Mar 2014 #83

Sorry you don't get it. L0oniX Mar 2014 #85

+1000! n-t Logical Mar 2014 #89

I will but it won't count because I've been gerrymandered. Wake up to reality. mmonk Mar 2014 #86

I had no idea people were worshiping this Asperger's sufferer. He's the favorite psychic for some Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #90

Jury voted 3-3 to LEAVE IT ALONE. Orsino Mar 2014 #103

Shocking - or not I suppose Capt. Obvious Mar 2014 #104

Did I put in a "B?" No, I didn't. Who did????? The person reporting me?? nt Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #105

I'm amazed this was allowed. 840high Mar 2014 #135

I am not, this is the new DU nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #142

Sarah, come on. We don't always agree but this is way beneath you. nt stevenleser Mar 2014 #111

Well, Nate is not some sort of god, yet his predictions are being treated as if he were. nt Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #114

+1 L0oniX Mar 2014 #136

Thanks! nt Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #147

Using Asperger's that way, as if you consider it to be a "clever" insult, is deeply offensive! nt tblue37 Mar 2014 #169

Seriously? Arkana Mar 2014 #112

What is crazy is making this man appear as if he were the world's best statistician. nt Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #113

What's even crazier Capt. Obvious Mar 2014 #115

Are you kidding me? Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #116

I'm sorry, I should have been more direct in my post Capt. Obvious Mar 2014 #118

Why? There are arthritis sufferers, migraine sufferers. Don't tell me sufferer is an expletive. n Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #119

Play coy all you want Capt. Obvious Mar 2014 #120

No, let's discuss it. Explain EXACTLY what is wrong with saying someone suffers from a disease? Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #121

Oh, why did you say that then? Capt. Obvious Mar 2014 #122

Because Aspergers sufferers suffer Aspergers. What? Do you think there's a secret meaning? Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #123

Again - why did you post that link? Capt. Obvious Mar 2014 #124

Because the man exhibits every symptom of Aspergers. What are you not understanding? nt Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #144

You linked to a satire piece Capt. Obvious Mar 2014 #162

Ok, better question Capt. Obvious Mar 2014 #125

You have made no sense and continue to make none after things are explained to you. Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #145

wow, G_j Mar 2014 #128

She apparently does Capt. Obvious Mar 2014 #131

About? Be explicit. nt Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #146

You intended everyone to interpret the idea of his having Asperger's as a reason to hold him in low tblue37 Mar 2014 #170

So your diagnosis of him is based on a humorist's satirical article? whopis01 Mar 2014 #163

Um, that is a comic *fiction*. The writer didn't really have those interactions with NS. tblue37 Mar 2014 #174

Maybe he's not, but there is no arguing with his results in 2008, 2010, and 2012. Arkana Mar 2014 #117

I'm not writing him off. I'm writing off all those who worship him as if he were Jeanne Dixon nt Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #153

+1 L0oniX Mar 2014 #171

Disgusting ProudToBeBlueInRhody Mar 2014 #132

Actually, you are the one that is making a fool of himself. You know absolutely nothing about this Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #151

Bill Frist is famous for doing this Capt. Obvious Mar 2014 #161

Lemme guess, you know someone who knows someone who knows someone who knows him ProudToBeBlueInRhody Mar 2014 #166

He's not a psychic. pa28 Mar 2014 #133

Statisticians attempt to make a guess. They're sometimes wrong and they're sometimes right. Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #150

Facepalm nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #156

Makes me wonder what affliction you are suffering from 1000words Mar 2014 #134

So statistics is now horoscope reading? nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #143

What about it was mean. nt Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #148

This nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #152

Post removed Post removed Mar 2014 #154

Are you aware that you are still digging? nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #155

Some well-known, intelligent, and respected DUers DO have Asperger's and have said so here. nt tblue37 Mar 2014 #172

I know, why I called Sarah on it nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #173

Nate Silver's a statistician. He goes with the numbers. NuclearDem Mar 2014 #94

Blessing in disguise? Nate's take could make people focus on the election... polichick Mar 2014 #95

Indeed GOTV L0oniX Mar 2014 #109

Tendency toward "Magical Thinking" view re: the efficacy of posts at DU bobduca Mar 2014 #98

Nate's good but it's way too early to panic mvd Mar 2014 #100

Some of his analysis is based on average turnouts at midterm nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #157

Don't even know where to start TSIAS Mar 2014 #102

His forecast is accurate for the time period in question. No serious person disputes that. DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2014 #110

Geeze louis, you understand the difference nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #141

ABSOLUTELY! davekriss Mar 2014 #149

Probabilities are not certainties Generic Brad Mar 2014 #158

Dinner first or just show up his place with tequila and a Marvin Gaye CD? Jake Stern Mar 2014 #159

Indeed ...the op is about not allowing discouraging info to impede GOTV. L0oniX Mar 2014 #164