General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Nate Silver: GOP favored to win Senate [View all]Hippo_Tron
(25,453 posts)Sure, the polls the day before the election are the most predictive because little if anything happens between the time the poll was taken and the election that would change peoples' minds.
What the polls don't tell us today is what will happen between now and 7 months from now. However, basic common sense tells us that on the whole it's not going to be good for Democrats. The President's approval ratings are in low 40's, the ACA is wildly unpopular, midterms are historically terrible for the party in power, the red states we're running in have become more and more hostile to Democrats over the past several years, and our incumbents are below 50% re-elect.
So what in the realm of reasonable possibility could change the macro dynamics over the next 7 months? Absolutely nothing I can think of, how about you? The only thing that could save some of these incumbents are weak opponents like Todd Akin. But if we're relying on that to save the Senate, we're really in a horrible position.