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BumRushDaShow

(166,139 posts)

156. During the gov't shutdown

Tue Mar 25, 2014, 04:16 AM

Mar 2014

there were 20-some seats IDed in swing districts as possible Dem pickups (purple districts that previously had Dem reps pre-2010 redistricting and which were potentially leaning Dem + indie with a high turnout). And these are who the media kept focusing on as the group of GOP reps who could potentially vote with the Dems to end the shutdown. A bunch are right here in PA (e.g., Meehan in the 7th & Fitzpatrick in the 8th)

One forecaster to follow is Sam Wang, who often parries with Silver -

http://election.princeton.edu/2013/10/17/house-2014-election-analysis-errors-not-mine-i-think/#more-9965
http://election.princeton.edu/2013/10/24/just-how-steep-is-that-climb-anyway/#more-9994

He hasn't done any recent congressional analysis since his post-shutdown commentaries, but once he does, it will be interesting to see...

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Nate Silver: GOP favored to win Senate [View all] BrentWil Mar 2014 OP

if that happens we might as well just flush 2pooped2pop Mar 2014 #1

We will win it back in 2016... The map BrentWil Mar 2014 #5

Yeah sure..... Historic NY Mar 2014 #7

they will push through so much bullshit that it won't be worth living here 2pooped2pop Mar 2014 #9

fear not d_b Mar 2014 #53

Dems will filibuster and Obama will veto the crazy shit in the budget... Hippo_Tron Mar 2014 #91

Filibuster what? Beacool Mar 2014 #117

They ended it for nominees, not for legislation... Hippo_Tron Mar 2014 #151

Thanks for the clarification. Beacool Mar 2014 #154

We are at serious risk for decades because of the gerrymandering pnwmom Mar 2014 #24

Bullshit observation. We MUST hold the Senate and try to win the House. bluestate10 Mar 2014 #40

Except that it takes two-thirds of the Senate to convict the President on impeachment. TexasTowelie Mar 2014 #95

The GOP will NEVER try to impeach Obama. DetlefK Mar 2014 #132

Believe that if you want to. Chisox08 Mar 2014 #147

No. The Republicans will have most races fixed by then unless Team Koch makes ballyhoo Mar 2014 #62

And Koch _WILL_ overplay their hand Timez Squarez Mar 2014 #68

That's the spirit! ballyhoo Mar 2014 #76

No, the President has the veto pen and they won't have a two thirds mandate seveneyes Mar 2014 #39

If republicans control the House and Senate, with their current mindset, they bluestate10 Mar 2014 #43

I think they learned their lesson about impeachment customerserviceguy Mar 2014 #102

No one is going to impeach Obama. Beacool Mar 2014 #120

Nate Silver ...shilling for the GOP? L0oniX Mar 2014 #2

As saying shit isn't good analysis doesn't make it so BrentWil Mar 2014 #6

In 2012 he called all 50 states. former9thward Mar 2014 #41

Ok ...so never mind voting then. Thanks for the pep talk. L0oniX Mar 2014 #85

The poster I was replying to said Silver was shit. former9thward Mar 2014 #87

To be fair, he only had to call nine states Blue_Tires Mar 2014 #99

Who else did? former9thward Mar 2014 #123

I didn't say that, did I? Blue_Tires Mar 2014 #131

Actually, many other websites and statisticians were even more accurate. Dawgs Mar 2014 #136

So did just taking an average of all of the final polls. Dawgs Mar 2014 #111

Why don't you get in the business then? former9thward Mar 2014 #122

Actually, I'm working on it right now. Dawgs Mar 2014 #135

Well good luck to you. former9thward Mar 2014 #138

I'll let the chicken little gang enjoy snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. L0oniX Mar 2014 #84

LOL, we love Nate when he says dems will win. We hate him other wise. So stupid. n-t Logical Mar 2014 #18

I'm pretty sure there will be plenty here rubbing their hands will glee over that prediction n/t Sheepshank Mar 2014 #29

Cheering for the negative? Are you sure you are on the right site? L0oniX Mar 2014 #82

Cheering his accuracy. You can be in denial all you want. n-t Logical Mar 2014 #88

So yea ...don't bother to vote. So we loose and you would be happy that the pollster was right. L0oniX Mar 2014 #106

I don't think that is what Logical is saying. Beacool Mar 2014 #121

+1 Agschmid Mar 2014 #126

Lol, temper temper, who said not to vote? Are you mad bro? nt Logical Mar 2014 #134

Yea ...I am angry that Dems didn't get out and vote for Alex Sink ...maybe they saw Nate's poll... L0oniX Mar 2014 #141

Nate had a poll for that special election? Capt. Obvious Mar 2014 #144

Well, then they are stupid I agree, but Nate will predict based on facts.... Logical Mar 2014 #149

I hate that stupid, reflexive response that any pollster bearing bad news... Silent3 Mar 2014 #23

So true! nt Logical Mar 2014 #31

Imagine carrying this response out in other areas Capt. Obvious Mar 2014 #37

+1 L0oniX Mar 2014 #80

The "Pure" crowd has planted their flag. You see them repeatedly on DU bluestate10 Mar 2014 #46

nailed it nt steve2470 Mar 2014 #103

Rushing into defeat ...huh. Are you sure you are on the right site? L0oniX Mar 2014 #81

You somehow equate what I said with "rushing into defeat"? Silent3 Mar 2014 #92

Most teams have cheerleaders. Nate is right? ...ok ...so don't bother to vote. Got it! L0oniX Mar 2014 #109

No one said that. Agschmid Mar 2014 #127

All except for the fact that I said the exact opposite about voting. Silent3 Mar 2014 #139

So polling legitimacy is based demwing Mar 2014 #101

Are you trying to depress us and trying to make people not vote? WTF L0oniX Mar 2014 #105

Perhaps these polls should encourage Democrats... NobodyHere Mar 2014 #113

That's a much better way to use the poll. Saying Nate's always right is saying don't bother to vote. L0oniX Mar 2014 #116

No, it isn't saying that at all demwing Mar 2014 #119

You're fucking welcome demwing Mar 2014 #118

..and enjoy your Dems are going to loose fucking poll. L0oniX Mar 2014 #140

You've lost it in this sub thread. Agschmid Mar 2014 #130

...^ that 840high Mar 2014 #94

Silver is a Statistician, he calls it as he sees it. We must prove him wrong. We bluestate10 Mar 2014 #44

Prove him wrong or never mind voting. Take your choice! L0oniX Mar 2014 #86

Some of us have no one to vote for for some races Art_from_Ark Mar 2014 #100

That's a really ProSense Mar 2014 #3

Yes but... BrentWil Mar 2014 #8

Landrieu is leading her likely Rethug opponent by 7 points. Dawson Leery Mar 2014 #13

she leads her likely opponent in a jungle primary dsc Mar 2014 #49

There will be NO 'poorly-financed tea party upstart' with Koch dollars in play. n/t freshwest Mar 2014 #66

Actually, every Koch dollars will be exposed as dirty Timez Squarez Mar 2014 #69

What Wilburforce will do this? freshwest Mar 2014 #79

Meh. Let's just focus on 2016 Cali_Democrat Mar 2014 #4

Nope. Rex Mar 2014 #10

This message was self-deleted by its author Nye Bevan Mar 2014 #11

repubs already control the senate, this will be a mere formality nt msongs Mar 2014 #12

+1000 Tom Ripley Mar 2014 #14

ouch d_b Mar 2014 #54

Yep. Pretty much.......... ballyhoo Mar 2014 #59

It might be a bad year for Democrats rumdude Mar 2014 #15

Uh no. Democrats only need 17 seats to take the House BumRushDaShow Mar 2014 #16

About time someone said it! philosslayer Mar 2014 #57

Does any forecaster predict that Democrats will come close to picking up 17 seats? Pepper Cat Mar 2014 #146

During the gov't shutdown BumRushDaShow Mar 2014 #156

Bullshit. Saying the mid-terms aren't important is a giveaway to the republicans. arcane1 Mar 2014 #30

There are some "There is no difference between Democrats and republicans" bluestate10 Mar 2014 #48

2014 is just as important nt steve2470 Mar 2014 #104

I take him at his word Kild the Radio Star Mar 2014 #17

49.2 (D) - 50.8 (R) this far out isn't bad. Motown_Johnny Mar 2014 #19

Georgia looks promising. Dawson Leery Mar 2014 #20

the Moral Monday movement spilling over there may help turnout too n/t Motown_Johnny Mar 2014 #22

In particular that it is in the South. Seats in Georgia, Louisiana, bluestate10 Mar 2014 #50

How promising? Pepper Cat Mar 2014 #145

Favored, yes, but not by such a margin that it can't be turned around Silent3 Mar 2014 #21

It is important that Democrats GOTV, if that happens, Democrats bluestate10 Mar 2014 #55

It's too early to just give up because of that treestar Mar 2014 #25

Silver is making a prediction based upon historical trends. No time is bluestate10 Mar 2014 #56

+1 treestar Mar 2014 #96

Perhaps it is meant to put a little fire under our asses to GOTV! VanillaRhapsody Mar 2014 #26

It definitely Should Put a Big Ol Fire Under our Asses! Cha Mar 2014 #71

This is good news at this point in the year. stopbush Mar 2014 #27

I predict Nate Silver will be wrong Politicalboi Mar 2014 #28

Me, too. GoCubsGo Mar 2014 #36

I hope you're right. But you have to acknowledge that Nate's track record has been fairly Number23 Mar 2014 #45

Nope. On crack. Timez Squarez Mar 2014 #72

No we don't have to accept Nate's shit poll. I am going to vote anyway. Fuck Nate! L0oniX Mar 2014 #110

I am doing to assume (for your sake) that you responded to the wrong person Number23 Mar 2014 #148

we need to drive the GOTV effort. We can't assume anything. bluestate10 Mar 2014 #60

Nate Silver is on crack, as usual. Timez Squarez Mar 2014 #70

^^^this^^^ will make some DU members sad I guess. L0oniX Mar 2014 #108

Nates not perfect MFM008 Mar 2014 #32

If historical true, the final count at the voting booth with have nothing to do policy, Sheepshank Mar 2014 #33

i trust Nate's math, but it can change this far out. JaneyVee Mar 2014 #34

^^^ this^^^ TDale313 Mar 2014 #98

I find the responses in this thread to be way too freeperish. L0oniX Mar 2014 #107

Polls mean absolutely positively NOTHING right now. NOTHING. RBInMaine Mar 2014 #35

Worrying, but not immensely so. Donald Ian Rankin Mar 2014 #38

Democrats tend to have poor turnout when the presidency isn't at stake davidn3600 Mar 2014 #42

Although when pissed enough, they can come out like in 2006 BumRushDaShow Mar 2014 #47

Yeah, but Bush was president davidn3600 Mar 2014 #58

Right and wrong. What turned Democrats out in 2006 was the behavior bluestate10 Mar 2014 #64

Not lately MFrohike Mar 2014 #90

The ACA reality is just starting to dispel the Republican bullshit. gulliver Mar 2014 #51

Republicans are going to make it as hard as possible to vote, so don't count on bluestate10 Mar 2014 #65

Any attempt to suppress should be immediately stopped, and then the perpertrator Timez Squarez Mar 2014 #73

what color is the sky on your planet? Richardo Mar 2014 #77

Well, if democrats stay at home and don't vote in November, no_hypocrisy Mar 2014 #52

...and some here are praising Nate. Message: Don't bother to vote. L0oniX Mar 2014 #114

Silver is the best I've ever seen at prognostication. With what I think will happen prior to ballyhoo Mar 2014 #61

The Rethuglian Party will be dead or set aside as a regional party Timez Squarez Mar 2014 #74

So... butterfly77 Mar 2014 #63

Nate Silver is on crack, as usual. Timez Squarez Mar 2014 #67

As usual? ForgoTheConsequence Mar 2014 #83

...or the one before that? Richardo Mar 2014 #89

Let's hope Grimes' 0.5% lead in Kentucky holds nt Pepper Cat Mar 2014 #124

It will be hard but we can still hold onto it but we need to get our base out. hrmjustin Mar 2014 #75

If that happens, this country is doomed liberal N proud Mar 2014 #78

This message was self-deleted by its author Cal33 Mar 2014 #112

Problem with Nate is lancer78 Mar 2014 #93

much harder Shivering Jemmy Mar 2014 #97

A "SLIGHT" CHANCE! Andy823 Mar 2014 #115

The good news is that Silver is only as a good as the polls he uses theboss Mar 2014 #125

How anyone can vote for a Republican after the stench of the Bewsh years is beyond me completely. HughBeaumont Mar 2014 #128

*******************"Slight Favorite in Race for Senate"********************** uponit7771 Mar 2014 #129

No matter Who says What fredamae Mar 2014 #133

Nate also ways polls this far out are not very predictive. JoePhilly Mar 2014 #137

Polls are not the only factor Nate considers, when making his forecast Pepper Cat Mar 2014 #142

I've read his book. JoePhilly Mar 2014 #143

Polls are not the only thing Nate bases his forecasts on Pepper Cat Mar 2014 #150

Polls combined with some basic common sense this far out are very predictive Hippo_Tron Mar 2014 #152

The Nate Silver who just hired a climate change denier for his new website? KamaAina Mar 2014 #153

Bwahahahahah ...nailed it! L0oniX Mar 2014 #155

Message auto-removed Name removed Mar 2014 #157