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DemocratSinceBirth

(101,833 posts)

110. His forecast is accurate for the time period in question. No serious person disputes that.

Reply to L0oniX (Original post)

Tue Mar 25, 2014, 12:26 PM

Mar 2014

That being said as the political environment changes his forecast will change, for better or worse.

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For fucks sake ...get out and vote Dem ...fuck Nate Silver! [View all] L0oniX Mar 2014 OP

I intend to....nt Wounded Bear Mar 2014 #1

Don't curse Nate. Thank him for the "or else" necessity of our GOTV efforts. Loudly Mar 2014 #2

zackly trof Mar 2014 #72

Its part of the GOP voter supression strategy. JoePhilly Mar 2014 #3

I find your incessant complaining about DU to be divisive. rhett o rick Mar 2014 #15

I want all Dems to vote straight DEM ticket. Do you? JoePhilly Mar 2014 #18

I resent that you asked that question. It appears to me that you are trying real hard rhett o rick Mar 2014 #24

I was describing a reality on DU, not describing you or how you vote. JoePhilly Mar 2014 #33

+1 DCBob Mar 2014 #35

I always question those among us that believe that only they can really see reality. rhett o rick Mar 2014 #38

I did not say what you just claimed I said. JoePhilly Mar 2014 #63

Awomen! What Joe said.... VanillaRhapsody Mar 2014 #101

Rec JohnnyRingo Mar 2014 #55

The Combustible Hair Club ... JoePhilly Mar 2014 #70

Projection. Those that panic when someone doesnt march lock-step with their leaders, now that's rhett o rick Mar 2014 #96

I think that you are the divisive one lillypaddle Mar 2014 #138

Never questioning the President, never holding him accountable, that's lock-step. nm rhett o rick Mar 2014 #139

I agree lillypaddle Mar 2014 #160

You are right on Joe lillypaddle Mar 2014 #137

I think he's asking a very valid question. nt Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #91

Asking me if I vote only for Democrats is insinuating that there might be a chance that I dont. rhett o rick Mar 2014 #97

ok nt Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #106

Lots of people here claim they'll vote Green or some other JoePhilly Mar 2014 #127

Well said. nt Bobbie Jo Mar 2014 #29

I want all elected Dems to vote for and advocate straight DEM positions NoOneMan Mar 2014 #126

You think it doesn't happen here??? Katashi_itto Mar 2014 #107

Are you suggesting that Nate Silver is a part of some kind of conspiracy to totodeinhere Mar 2014 #51

No, but its being framed as I describe when its reported. JoePhilly Mar 2014 #66

Yes Nate went out of his way to say that Republicans are only slightly favored at this totodeinhere Mar 2014 #82

The way the media frames it is part of the GOP voter supression JoePhilly Mar 2014 #129

Now that you said that Nate is not involved I agree with you. But your totodeinhere Mar 2014 #140

I think he's suggesting that Nate Silver seems to have diehard fans pushing him to stardom Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #92

That is not the impression that I got from his comment. n/t totodeinhere Mar 2014 #99

Nate's predictions are based on current polls. His system doesn't predict changes in polls. reformist2 Mar 2014 #4

Yes and Nate has said that in so many words himself. I don't look at this as doom and gloom totodeinhere Mar 2014 #54

Unless he predicts Dems to win... South_Street Mar 2014 #5

Nah. Look at this article. It the title bashes Dems but when you read the article, it's a different Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #93

Yes! Don't depend on some suit on a show for the results Rex Mar 2014 #6

Kick and Rec. Too many Eeyore's. FSogol Mar 2014 #7

And support Democratic candidates in vulnerable seats! herding cats Mar 2014 #8

Nate has now been called a crackhead and an "asscarrot" since making his forecast Pepper Cat Mar 2014 #9

Another DUer told me he was real smart and good at predictions. Rex Mar 2014 #19

Should I fuck Nate Silver before or after i vote Dem? el_bryanto Mar 2014 #10

Voting Dem IS fucking Nate with his poll. L0oniX Mar 2014 #12

No it's not. Nate is not advocating for Republican votes. He is totodeinhere Mar 2014 #56

His poll? I didn't know Nate had a poll Pepper Cat Mar 2014 #67

You are taking Nate Silver all wrong. He is objective. phleshdef Mar 2014 #75

I found out a while back that I'm not his type BainsBane Mar 2014 #16

We need to do more than that. stillwaiting Mar 2014 #11

How do you explain why Dems have adopted RepubliCon policies? polichick Mar 2014 #14

Because the right has been more effective in making their voices heard BainsBane Mar 2014 #17

I mean in trying to convince people to vote Dem... polichick Mar 2014 #28

Here I'll be campaiging for Jeff Merkley and Peter DeFazio, both just fine with me. Bluenorthwest Mar 2014 #46

Hey there, stillwaiting Mar 2014 #32

Hi! I'm doing well - just trying to kick that sick feeling I got... polichick Mar 2014 #37

"couldn't stomach selling another corporate Dem to anyone" Nailed! L0oniX Mar 2014 #87

+1 redqueen Mar 2014 #31

GOTV 2014! nt MineralMan Mar 2014 #13

Why are you automatically assuming that Nate Silver is "shilling"? SomethingFishy Mar 2014 #20

He's shilling the same way weathermen are Capt. Obvious Mar 2014 #22

Nate isn't destiny supernova Mar 2014 #21

You are a supernova of wisdom! randome Mar 2014 #25

I plan to. Will be helping all I can! JNelson6563 Mar 2014 #23

When you don't like the evidence, swear at it and it will go away? Donald Ian Rankin Mar 2014 #26

Actually it Nate's analysis give republicans a slight edge this far out. It is not the doom and lostincalifornia Mar 2014 #27

Yeh, ignore intelligent, likely Democratic voting guy HERVEPA Mar 2014 #30

Anyone paying attention to Silver should be MORE motivated to vote, not less. Warren DeMontague Mar 2014 #34

Right, how hard is it to get that concept? demwing Mar 2014 #44

This ProudToBeBlueInRhody Mar 2014 #57

But I'm afraid, Bluto. Nate Silver says we won't win. JVS Mar 2014 #36

It's March and the election is in November. Nothing has been decided yet NightWatcher Mar 2014 #39

Who here is saying we should give up? demwing Mar 2014 #40

I hope you are directing your rant at the centrists. rhett o rick Mar 2014 #41

Ok.... Bobbie Jo Mar 2014 #45

Ok I am open for suggestions. We know who the left is. And we know there are those here that rhett o rick Mar 2014 #47

Many of us do all those things, and are Bobbie Jo Mar 2014 #48

You are right of course. I am doing what I rail about in others. rhett o rick Mar 2014 #88

I was bombarded with Dem phone calls for Alex Sink (D). L0oniX Mar 2014 #61

are you suggesting nate purposely skewed the numbers? DCBob Mar 2014 #42

are you suggesting nate purposely skewed the numbers? DCBob Mar 2014 #43

I'd say the 'skewing' comes in presenting 'the numbers' as having any actual Bluenorthwest Mar 2014 #49

Polls are not the only thing Nate bases his forecasts on Pepper Cat Mar 2014 #73

Yes, and I noted that candidate are not even known in many cases Bluenorthwest Mar 2014 #81

... SidDithers Mar 2014 #130

Nate is a good guy. I disagree with saying f*** him. totodeinhere Mar 2014 #50

Damn straight! calimary Mar 2014 #52

Democrats' campaign slogan:The Democratic Registration Advantage WILL BE The Turnout Advantage. ancianita Mar 2014 #53

K&R! This post should have hundreds of recommendations! Enthusiast Mar 2014 #58

Well there are a lot of Nate lovers apparently. L0oniX Mar 2014 #59

Maybe he was right but we can change it starting now. Enthusiast Mar 2014 #64

"Well there are a lot of Nate lovers apparently." Capt. Obvious Mar 2014 #76

I'd be more impressed with this BS if he predicted mikeysnot Mar 2014 #60

Reminds me of that old Italian guy who used to predict the horse races. L0oniX Mar 2014 #62

*sigh* neffernin Mar 2014 #68

Nate Silver's ability with statistics is second to none neffernin Mar 2014 #65

Nate Silver sez... FailureToCommunicate Mar 2014 #69

Nate is pretty accurate so TBF Mar 2014 #71

KICK! Cha Mar 2014 #74

Let's turn Texas blue while we are at it Gothmog Mar 2014 #77

I will be voting for Democrats in 2014 and urging others to do the same. stage left Mar 2014 #78

+1 L0oniX Mar 2014 #84

That's the whole point of the op. GOTV ...in spite of what Miss Cleo says. L0oniX Mar 2014 #108

What was your view of "Mrs Cleo" when he nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #165

My vote is not swayed by polls or Miss Cleo. I can only wish the same goes for other Dems. L0oniX Mar 2014 #167

If you confuse polls with statistical analysis nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #168

Yes! And it's early and even his ever so accurate polls can change treestar Mar 2014 #79

K&R gulliver Mar 2014 #80

You aren't the first person to expose Nate Silver's total incompetence. Jim Lane Mar 2014 #83

Sorry you don't get it. L0oniX Mar 2014 #85

+1000! n-t Logical Mar 2014 #89

I will but it won't count because I've been gerrymandered. Wake up to reality. mmonk Mar 2014 #86

I had no idea people were worshiping this Asperger's sufferer. He's the favorite psychic for some Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #90

Jury voted 3-3 to LEAVE IT ALONE. Orsino Mar 2014 #103

Shocking - or not I suppose Capt. Obvious Mar 2014 #104

Did I put in a "B?" No, I didn't. Who did????? The person reporting me?? nt Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #105

I'm amazed this was allowed. 840high Mar 2014 #135

I am not, this is the new DU nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #142

Sarah, come on. We don't always agree but this is way beneath you. nt stevenleser Mar 2014 #111

Well, Nate is not some sort of god, yet his predictions are being treated as if he were. nt Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #114

+1 L0oniX Mar 2014 #136

Thanks! nt Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #147

Using Asperger's that way, as if you consider it to be a "clever" insult, is deeply offensive! nt tblue37 Mar 2014 #169

Seriously? Arkana Mar 2014 #112

What is crazy is making this man appear as if he were the world's best statistician. nt Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #113

What's even crazier Capt. Obvious Mar 2014 #115

Are you kidding me? Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #116

I'm sorry, I should have been more direct in my post Capt. Obvious Mar 2014 #118

Why? There are arthritis sufferers, migraine sufferers. Don't tell me sufferer is an expletive. n Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #119

Play coy all you want Capt. Obvious Mar 2014 #120

No, let's discuss it. Explain EXACTLY what is wrong with saying someone suffers from a disease? Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #121

Oh, why did you say that then? Capt. Obvious Mar 2014 #122

Because Aspergers sufferers suffer Aspergers. What? Do you think there's a secret meaning? Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #123

Again - why did you post that link? Capt. Obvious Mar 2014 #124

Because the man exhibits every symptom of Aspergers. What are you not understanding? nt Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #144

You linked to a satire piece Capt. Obvious Mar 2014 #162

Ok, better question Capt. Obvious Mar 2014 #125

You have made no sense and continue to make none after things are explained to you. Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #145

wow, G_j Mar 2014 #128

She apparently does Capt. Obvious Mar 2014 #131

About? Be explicit. nt Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #146

You intended everyone to interpret the idea of his having Asperger's as a reason to hold him in low tblue37 Mar 2014 #170

So your diagnosis of him is based on a humorist's satirical article? whopis01 Mar 2014 #163

Um, that is a comic *fiction*. The writer didn't really have those interactions with NS. tblue37 Mar 2014 #174

Maybe he's not, but there is no arguing with his results in 2008, 2010, and 2012. Arkana Mar 2014 #117

I'm not writing him off. I'm writing off all those who worship him as if he were Jeanne Dixon nt Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #153

+1 L0oniX Mar 2014 #171

Disgusting ProudToBeBlueInRhody Mar 2014 #132

Actually, you are the one that is making a fool of himself. You know absolutely nothing about this Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #151

Bill Frist is famous for doing this Capt. Obvious Mar 2014 #161

Lemme guess, you know someone who knows someone who knows someone who knows him ProudToBeBlueInRhody Mar 2014 #166

He's not a psychic. pa28 Mar 2014 #133

Statisticians attempt to make a guess. They're sometimes wrong and they're sometimes right. Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #150

Facepalm nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #156

Makes me wonder what affliction you are suffering from 1000words Mar 2014 #134

So statistics is now horoscope reading? nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #143

What about it was mean. nt Sarah Ibarruri Mar 2014 #148

This nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #152

Post removed Post removed Mar 2014 #154

Are you aware that you are still digging? nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #155

Some well-known, intelligent, and respected DUers DO have Asperger's and have said so here. nt tblue37 Mar 2014 #172

I know, why I called Sarah on it nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #173

Nate Silver's a statistician. He goes with the numbers. NuclearDem Mar 2014 #94

Blessing in disguise? Nate's take could make people focus on the election... polichick Mar 2014 #95

Indeed GOTV L0oniX Mar 2014 #109

Tendency toward "Magical Thinking" view re: the efficacy of posts at DU bobduca Mar 2014 #98

Nate's good but it's way too early to panic mvd Mar 2014 #100

Some of his analysis is based on average turnouts at midterm nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #157

Don't even know where to start TSIAS Mar 2014 #102

His forecast is accurate for the time period in question. No serious person disputes that. DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2014 #110

Geeze louis, you understand the difference nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #141

ABSOLUTELY! davekriss Mar 2014 #149

Probabilities are not certainties Generic Brad Mar 2014 #158

Dinner first or just show up his place with tequila and a Marvin Gaye CD? Jake Stern Mar 2014 #159

Indeed ...the op is about not allowing discouraging info to impede GOTV. L0oniX Mar 2014 #164