General Discussion

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,729 posts)

31. He nailed 31 out of 33 Senate races in 012

Tue Mar 25, 2014, 12:39 PM

Mar 2014

That's ninety four percent accuracy. It would seem unreasonable to demand greater accuracy given what he is assigned to predict.

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

82 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

You don't have to be a Nate Silver worshipper to realize he's probably right about 2014. [View all] DanTex Mar 2014 OP

I think that you are correct. Skinner Mar 2014 #1

Concur. Richardo Mar 2014 #17

+1 tofuandbeer Mar 2014 #36

Same here with Michael Moore at times. nt Logical Mar 2014 #24

We are 100% on the same page. It's 8 months out. There is a lot of time. I think he is right stevenleser Mar 2014 #29

Plenty of time to hear about "legitimate rape" Nevernose Mar 2014 #78

It is also the midterms nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #2

"But making the election relevant would be a good first step." magical thyme Mar 2014 #4

If I got a penny every time I was told this nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #8

Any ideas on what makes elections relevant with billionaires pulling the strings ...? MindMover Mar 2014 #43

Well there are many fixes possible nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #69

First, thank you for your honest response ... and not some smartass remark ... MindMover Mar 2014 #70

You are very correct nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #71

Do you think we can get rid of big money in politics..? MindMover Mar 2014 #72

Citizens will have to be reversed nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #73

Agreed with reversal of CU ... and thanks for your digging out the facts and reporting them ... MindMover Mar 2014 #75

There are people working to reverse it nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #77

Ok, so the corporations and the billionaires have money and lots of it .... MindMover Mar 2014 #79

I hate to point this out nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #80

Strikes, demonstrations, occupy put people at risk ... and many injured ... MindMover Mar 2014 #81

Yeah but that is what it will take nadinbrzezinski Mar 2014 #82

I would word it differently... Wounded Bear Mar 2014 #3

How does he do predicting other things using his 'models'? Bluenorthwest Mar 2014 #5

People were claiming yesterday that he was "shilling" for the GOP SomethingFishy Mar 2014 #6

Not just that Capt. Obvious Mar 2014 #19

Wow... Straight to the ignore list.. SomethingFishy Mar 2014 #20

Yes, that was my brother's condition Kolesar Mar 2014 #32

Wow ProudToBeBlueInRhody Mar 2014 #56

Don't miss her outraged gymnastics over it Capt. Obvious Mar 2014 #58

I'm waiting for her to post.... ProudToBeBlueInRhody Mar 2014 #59

She posted a link to a satire piece Capt. Obvious Mar 2014 #61

She clearly was using it as a pejorative ProudToBeBlueInRhody Mar 2014 #64

Ugly post from, Sarah. 1000words Mar 2014 #60

Instead of directing angst toward Nate, Dems should be figuring out and acting upon ways to make kelliekat44 Mar 2014 #7

That's not the plan. Phlem Mar 2014 #27

Angst may be appropriate. Jackpine Radical Mar 2014 #63

If we could STFU about 2016 for a few months, we might get somewhere n/t arcane1 Mar 2014 #9

+This much Xyzse Mar 2014 #10

Talking on a message board doesn't impact elections... polichick Mar 2014 #41

No s*** BodieTown Mar 2014 #46

Some of the backlash came from all the news stories Blue_Tires Mar 2014 #11

No Augiedog Mar 2014 #12

Um, no... he has a near perfect track record. phleshdef Mar 2014 #23

Not even close to perfect on Congressional elections Bluenorthwest Mar 2014 #38

As he often explains, Congressional house elections are very hard to predict. phleshdef Mar 2014 #42

We are speaking of Congressional elections, not Presidential. When you are wrong Bluenorthwest Mar 2014 #49

90% is near perfect in my book. phleshdef Mar 2014 #67

In what alternate universe is that? nt stevenleser Mar 2014 #30

I just posted some details of his Congressional pick track record, which is not Bluenorthwest Mar 2014 #39

In what universe? Arkana Mar 2014 #34

"...based on the current evidence." GoCubsGo Mar 2014 #13

Instead of getting mad at Nate Silver... Triana Mar 2014 #14

So if he's fallen out of favor with DU... WhaTHellsgoingonhere Mar 2014 #15

He didn't say they were going to win fasttense Mar 2014 #16

If we are just going to hand it to them... lame54 Mar 2014 #18

maybe democrats should become hateful assholes to win more elections? spanone Mar 2014 #21

Mid-term and second term doldrums. AtheistCrusader Mar 2014 #22

The thing is, it was not even a full percentage point. PowerToThePeople Mar 2014 #25

if he is wrong about 1 race we keep control. He missed 4 laast cycle. nt jbond56 Mar 2014 #26

He nailed 31 out of 33 Senate races in 012 DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2014 #31

If he's wrong by that same number this cycle Democrats hold the Senate. Bluenorthwest Mar 2014 #51

Only if he's wrong in a favourable direction. N.T. Donald Ian Rankin Mar 2014 #54

your right. He missed 2 races the last 2 cycles. nt jbond56 Mar 2014 #57

His election forecast is accurate for the time period in question. No serious person disputes that. DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2014 #28

So far, Nate hasn't been wrong. Arkana Mar 2014 #33

He has predicted 3 Senate election cycles in his career, one he nailed them all Bluenorthwest Mar 2014 #50

Sorry,,, Cryptoad Mar 2014 #35

meh Capt. Obvious Mar 2014 #37

I like him, and his stats are usually right on Thekaspervote Mar 2014 #40

If my doc said I was probably heading for a heart attack if I don't change my lifestyle... herding cats Mar 2014 #44

Nate did us a favor rtracey Mar 2014 #45

Maybe. Sam Wang and Drew Linzer were more accurate in 2012; I'd be interested in hearing from them Chathamization Mar 2014 #47

Dan, Nate "the canary in the coal mine"? saidsimplesimon Mar 2014 #48

It's not like he's going out on a limb. 1000words Mar 2014 #52

People are hypocrites ProudToBeBlueInRhody Mar 2014 #53

Maybe…. VA_Jill Mar 2014 #55

Good point... WinstonSmith4740 Mar 2014 #62

DU may have Nadered Nate, but the Dem Party is trying to capitalize WhaTHellsgoingonhere Mar 2014 #65

Instead of being mad at Nate Silver Democrats needs to get out their Chisox08 Mar 2014 #66

This prediction is based on current information Gothmog Mar 2014 #68

GOTV. Dawson Leery Mar 2014 #76

I agree, you don't need to be a mathematician to believe he's wrong. idendoit Mar 2014 #74