General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: You don't have to be a Nate Silver worshipper to realize he's probably right about 2014. [View all]Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)in 3 out of 30 races, you are wrong 10% of the time, not 'nearly perfect' but still very good. Still, in context of this prediction of a 6 Seat victory, being off by 3 and by 2 in the last two Senate cycles is significant error. If he's off by 2 or 3, Democrats hold the majority. In fact, we do so if he's off by 1.
Of the three Senatorial cycles he has predicted, he has been wrong two out of three times by a margin that would overturn the outcome he is predicting in this case. He's been correct once, wrong twice on predictions this narrow. His other calls were made far closer to the election, as he did not have the need to promote his new prediction business.
'He's always right, expect when he's not'. Harry Reid can tell you Nate is not always right.