How to Generate Bogus Conclusions (E-Cig Study Edition)

[DanTex]

29. I think you're getting this wrong.

From what it looks like, they took a cross-section of smokers. This would include people who are trying to quit, people who have no interest in quitting, people who would like to quite but aren't actively trying, etc. So, to use the job analogy, this would be like looking at the civilian-to-employment ratio, which counts everyone of working age as a potential employee, rather than the unemployment ratio, which counts only people who are actively looking for a job but can't find one.

Also, you're getting this part wrong:

Check this out: “You’ll hear lots of stories from people that say that e-cigarettes help them quit, but what we found was when we actually studied that systematically, we didn’t see a significant effect on cessation”

This is a flat fucking LIE. Nobody in this study, "studied that systematically." They did not study THAT at all.

Who are these people who anecdotally claim that e-cigs "help them quit"?

Drumroll... PEOPLE WHO NO LONGER SMOKE. "Help them quit" means they are not smoking.

Umm, people who quit smoking during the year that the study took place were smokers at the start of the study, and non-smokers at the end of the study. So studying people who smoke and waiting for a year to see how many still smoke, is precisely "studying that systematically".

Moreover, according to the few paragraphs available of the study linked here, 85% of the people who used e-cigs reported using them in an attempt to quit. Which means your conjecture that people who both smoke and e-smoke are less likely to try and quit is wrong. And it also shows, again, that the study did include plenty of people who were in fact trying to quit.
http://archinte.jamanetwork.com/article.aspx?articleid=1846627