How to Generate Bogus Conclusions (E-Cig Study Edition)

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31. Okay... that is beyond dishonest.

Not blaming you, but whoever said, "85% of smokers who used e-cigarettes reported using them to quit" is being intentionally deceptive.

Half of that 85% said they had no plans to quit in the next six months.


The researchers are, in fact, morons for stating the conclusion they stated. The sample parameter is guaranteed to achieve a useless result, whether by design or incompetence.

And they are testing a proposition nobody even claims—that having ever used an e-cig but not having quit when you started using an e-cig makes you likelier to quit in the future. The underlined part is a definitional requirement of the sample of people who have used an e-cig in the past but currently smoke cigarettes. And in the case of this sample, a LOT of cigarettes, since their usage is listed as higher.

Do you recognize that this study starts out by excluding every person who ever quit using e-cigs? That is is limited to people who used e-cigs but kept right on smoking?

Why would a person study the quitting efficacy of something by first removing every person who had shown quitting efficacy?