Marshall Brain: We are about to see a seismic shift in the American workforce

[chrisa]

73. Response

And how is the Government going to create jobs? How will we replace the current batch of jobs lost by automation?

If I had a clear cut answer for that right now, I would be a millionaire and a genius. I don't have the answer because I don't know what technologies will be created in the future. However, just like in the past, new technology opens up new avenues for jobs. One such example - with the creation of the internet, sites like Craigslist have been making people a lot of money. If you're handy, and can make dolls, for instance, the internet has increased your customer-base to everyone you can ship to.

We need a new industry that creates a ton of jobs - no such thing is coming. We're pretty much at the end of the evolutionary road when it comes to new types of jobs. Of course if anyone thinks I'm wrong, please feel free to show us the new job booms.

How can you make such a claim? That's like claiming, in the 1900's, "Business will always be this way. We will always have local businesses! Nothing new is ever going to come in the future!" In the 1800's - "We will always go around by horseback! We are at the end of our evolutionary road when it comes to travel! Might as well invest in horses in the future, because in 2100, we'll still be riding horses!" I also heard people having the opinion that we will never leave earth to colonize somewhere else, even after 10,000 years have passed. Why? How could we possibly know that?

What new set of skills do you think will be needed by the tens of millions of currently jobless and many more future jobless Americans?

If I knew the answer to that, I would invest in that industry and become a billionaire.

All that free time is useless when you don't have any money to buy anything.

Here's what makes no sense about this - if nobody has any money, why would companies pursue that business plan? So that their shelves can be full of items that nobody can buy? That doesn't make any sense.

Automation is turning out more like this, actually:
http://marshallbrain.com/manna1.htm

If a system can do something better than a human, than it's definitely preferable. This is especially true with surgery, for example. You want that done accurately and with precision - machines offer a form of precision that humans cannot give.

The future will be nothing like that story - in fact, that's why its fiction - it's supposed to be out of the ordinary and exaggerated. Why do construction companies not build homes out of sticks and dirt now? Why do the police not mandate that every phone installed in houses must be tapped so that all communication must be monitored? Why is there not a camera on every street corner right now? Because no one wants it. In the future, nobody will want it either. They may have robots building their houses, but they will demand quality. They won't want crappy "terrafoam" houses that fall apart at the drop of a hat. There's no demand for that.

A cash register telling an employee to say "thank you" is hardly a big deal. The manager could just tell them that anyways.