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Rex

(65,616 posts)

65. 90,000 years from now it is overdue - still doesn't mean a thing really

Sat Apr 5, 2014, 05:30 PM

Apr 2014

http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/volcanoes/yellowstone/yellowstone_sub_page_50.html

Is it true that the next caldera-forming eruption of Yellowstone is overdue?

No. First of all, one cannot present recurrence intervals based on only two values. It would be statistically meaningless. But for those who insist... let's do the arithmetic. The three eruptions occurred 2.1 million, 1.3 million and 0.64 million years ago. The two intervals are thus 0.8 and 0.66 million years, averaging to a 0.73 million-year interval. Again, the last eruption was 0.64 million years ago, implying that we are still about 90,000 years away from the time when we might consider calling Yellowstone overdue for another caldera- forming eruption. Nevertheless, we cannot discount the possibility of another such eruption occurring some time in the future, given Yellowstone's volcanic history and the continued presence of magma beneath the Yellowstone caldera.

It could go tomorrow or it could go off in 100,000 years...nobody can predict based on just two values.

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What the hell is with people's disbelief of science in this country [View all] Arcanetrance Apr 2014 OP

Because people are too stupid to think that maybe the guy filming Autumn Apr 2014 #1

According to the report I read it's common for the Buffalo to gallop Arcanetrance Apr 2014 #4

Exactly, bison are always on the move, it's built into their DNA Warpy Apr 2014 #33

Exactly. They are grazing on open range they are going to move Autumn Apr 2014 #69

Yep CFLDem Apr 2014 #80

Also how Bison might have adapted to volcanos... (THEY CAN'T) bobduca Apr 2014 #145

Excellent point. Enthusiast Apr 2014 #154

And there's nothing can be done for the willful ignorant madokie Apr 2014 #147

Nothing but that one post for people who don't know but are educable. Warpy Apr 2014 #160

The story also pointed out the Bison rustydog Apr 2014 #156

We visited TR park last summer sarisataka Apr 2014 #17

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Everybody knows zombie T.Rex is a Glam band MattBaggins Apr 2014 #143

I think that people want to believe in more than just Science yeoman6987 Apr 2014 #91

I think you're on track with what others have said. It's a pretty hollow road RKP5637 Apr 2014 #125

Due to lack of imagination, dearth of empathy, and the inertia of institutionalized ignorance. greyl Apr 2014 #134

I think it's because scientists can no longer be executed House of Roberts Apr 2014 #2

_+1 lunasun Apr 2014 #127

Don't bother. Warren DeMontague Apr 2014 #3

Lol that's probably one of the better approaches Arcanetrance Apr 2014 #6

This ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ ProfessorGAC Apr 2014 #48

If she really believes, she could make huge bundle of money w/ put options on area stocks Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2014 #52

Money, of course, also being of limited value to dead people. Warren DeMontague Apr 2014 #87

no, it isn't qazplm Apr 2014 #121

It would fuck shit up significantly, depending on the size of the eruption. Warren DeMontague Apr 2014 #137

The Christians Have Told The Public That Believing In Fairy Tails Will Make Them Wealthy cantbeserious Apr 2014 #5

Yep, amazing! I had a guy tell me the other day that when one dies RKP5637 Apr 2014 #126

His church is probably holding his heaven spending cash for him........ lunasun Apr 2014 #128

That guy needs to read his Bible! csziggy Apr 2014 #140

I'm not a religious person, but all of this is as I learned in my youth. What I RKP5637 Apr 2014 #146

Love this: CrispyQ Apr 2014 #162

I'd settle for some basic rationality and critical thinking. Science can come later. arcane1 Apr 2014 #7

I agree. Critical thinking skills are lacking. Even on the DU. n-t Logical Apr 2014 #8

A friend of mine said she was doing a "cleanse" LittleBlue Apr 2014 #9

My friend is into all that stuff too Arcanetrance Apr 2014 #12

At least your friend's toxins are (presumably) physical substances. arcane1 Apr 2014 #13

May I ask what they mean by toxic frequencies Arcanetrance Apr 2014 #16

You know, vibrations, energy, or something... arcane1 Apr 2014 #18

Seriously so what happens when we fly places Arcanetrance Apr 2014 #20

You have just applied too much logic to the issue arcane1 Apr 2014 #24

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Planes have statis wicks. pangaia Apr 2014 #71

Why not just attach a chain of paper clips to your pants cuff? The Velveteen Ocelot Apr 2014 #32

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When we were kids Nevernose Apr 2014 #92

My mistake..... Curmudgeoness Apr 2014 #96

me too = Summer was barefoot time auntsue Apr 2014 #101

Oh! Well, then. That makes perfect sense! Iggo Apr 2014 #61

This message was self-deleted by its author arcane1 Apr 2014 #158

Is it a jar of dirt? NuclearDem Apr 2014 #159

Well, I need no excuse LiberalAndProud Apr 2014 #23

I love being barefoot as well, BUT... FrodosPet Apr 2014 #93

That may be scientifically true, however, LiberalAndProud Apr 2014 #94

I love barefoot.. in Vt and now in FL.. Not sure I'm more "balanced" lol. glowing Apr 2014 #36

Khalil Gibran says, re: bare feet: NBachers Apr 2014 #133

A friend of mine did one and ended up in the ER because her body "eliminated toxins faster than it uppityperson Apr 2014 #22

Well there are cleanses that are perfectly fine and some that are wacky. cui bono Apr 2014 #34

Changes to a diet when directed by a physician is fine. NuclearDem Apr 2014 #67

I cringe whenever I hear "cleanse" and "toxins." GoCubsGo Apr 2014 #43

But too much of something that makes them work hard is bad. cui bono Apr 2014 #53

The only way to lose weight long term is eat sensibly. Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2014 #60

Science is fine Ignitioncontrol Apr 2014 #10

Yup Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2014 #55

Ain't that the truth. TxDemChem Apr 2014 #74

Well..at least until it is proven not to be true. .. pipoman Apr 2014 #122

That touches on another key point. Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2014 #142

"no eruption is imminent on our lifetime" B2G Apr 2014 #11

Judging by what the scientist said in the news story as our lifetime Arcanetrance Apr 2014 #15

90,000 years from now it is overdue - still doesn't mean a thing really Rex Apr 2014 #65

damn... icarusxat Apr 2014 #83

Perhaps, however conditions can change, and if they do, such as increased pressures or other lostincalifornia Apr 2014 #76

It's simple. The wholesale, ... MANative Apr 2014 #14

My mother has a wand. MissB Apr 2014 #21

Ask her what she thinks a witch's wand is going to accomplish. eShirl Apr 2014 #26

My mother has a wand Ignitioncontrol Apr 2014 #27

This message was self-deleted by its author uppityperson Apr 2014 #41

colloidal silver? Manifestor_of_Light Apr 2014 #42

isn't there a risk of that silver making you turn blue (literally)? dionysus Apr 2014 #111

Yellowstone officials say that the buffaloes are moving to new feeding grounds and that indeed they jwirr Apr 2014 #25

Here is the link maddezmom Apr 2014 #29

Thank you. jwirr Apr 2014 #30

You're welcome maddezmom Apr 2014 #31

people want to be gullible eShirl Apr 2014 #28

I am sometimes incredulous pipoman Apr 2014 #35

Science, by it's very nature, corrects itself... Dr Hobbitstein Apr 2014 #86

I agree pipoman Apr 2014 #114

if it's disproven, it was never a fact to begin with eShirl Apr 2014 #115

exactly why incredulity or at least a degree of pipoman Apr 2014 #116

ok, how about non-scientific facts? eShirl Apr 2014 #117

What about them. ..that's a pretty big field of knowledge. .. pipoman Apr 2014 #118

! eShirl Apr 2014 #119

iow... pipoman Apr 2014 #120

Science isn't a binary and absolute. NuclearDem Apr 2014 #89

I don't disagree, I also agree that a degree of incredulity pipoman Apr 2014 #113

Yes, people should be cautious when the term "fact" is thrown around NuclearDem Apr 2014 #123

I agree pipoman Apr 2014 #130

Sorry about your sister, but you seem to be advising us to not go to hospital. nt Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2014 #144

on the contrary. .. pipoman Apr 2014 #149

the video with 1 million hits shows buffalo 'trotting' deeper into the park. when herd animals panic Sunlei Apr 2014 #39

Bison run- that's something they do NBachers Apr 2014 #40

I tried getting my dog to predict the lottery numbers. Nye Bevan Apr 2014 #44

That's because only cats have that ability Arcanetrance Apr 2014 #45

I Have 4 Cats Too ProfessorGAC Apr 2014 #51

Dogs Are So Stupid! ProfessorGAC Apr 2014 #50

Several things: NuclearDem Apr 2014 #46

This is just another Conservative Lie that, I call, the Noah Effect! DhhD Apr 2014 #47

See that's the weird thing my friend is a reliable liberal Arcanetrance Apr 2014 #64

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One problem is that it is not uncommon SheilaT Apr 2014 #56

These same people believe at Noah built an Ark and Bonhomme Richard Apr 2014 #57

Scientists cannot say that it will not erupt in our lifetime. Rex Apr 2014 #59

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Must be. Rex Apr 2014 #70

Funny how they believe in science Curmudgeoness Apr 2014 #62

QUIET YOU! I'm waiting for God to send me some fire so I can cook dinner... Drew Richards Apr 2014 #63

On a serious note I love cooking with real fire Arcanetrance Apr 2014 #66

Agree! Drew Richards Apr 2014 #72

Snopes called it FALSE, as if that matters Frustratedlady Apr 2014 #73

I just noticed on the search site for Snopes that the RW thinks it's a tool for Obama? Frustratedlady Apr 2014 #79

THe REAL reason... James48 Apr 2014 #75

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Unless I hear it from Yogi & Boo Boo.... Walk away Apr 2014 #78

I've heard people say your car runs better past the junkyard out of fear you'll turn in.... Spitfire of ATJ Apr 2014 #81

This country is full of not so bright people. ForgoTheConsequence Apr 2014 #82

maybe because the tree of knowledge was off limits to us? liberal_at_heart Apr 2014 #84

We have become a nation of authoritarians. Many if not most have been raise to trust, rhett o rick Apr 2014 #85

Message auto-removed Name removed Apr 2014 #88

Stupid is rampant in this country... Ohio Joe Apr 2014 #90

I am a rationalist exboyfil Apr 2014 #95

Ignorance and Arrogance.... RagAss Apr 2014 #97

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The thing that always bugs me about a lot of it is it gets taken to far Arcanetrance Apr 2014 #99

I really don't think it's that much Nevernose Apr 2014 #112

Science makes Baby Jeezus cry. LadyHawkAZ Apr 2014 #100

Yes I am my father's son I can't help but push his work here on earth Arcanetrance Apr 2014 #102

I wrote it as sarcasm, more or less, LadyHawkAZ Apr 2014 #103

Sadly I grew up in Catholic school and i basically started saying that to everyone because Arcanetrance Apr 2014 #104

Superstition is easier to believe in. Agnosticsherbet Apr 2014 #105

Easier and more fulfilling in a way. NuclearDem Apr 2014 #110

I don't know, but both the left and the right are prone to it. ZombieHorde Apr 2014 #106

just watch what happens on DU when someone says "GMO" or "Fukushima...." mike_c Apr 2014 #107

I have read a few of them I'm not sold one way or the other in Gmo food Arcanetrance Apr 2014 #108

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This is why nadinbrzezinski Apr 2014 #124

One of the most amazing mimi85 Apr 2014 #129

This message was self-deleted by its author NuclearDem Apr 2014 #136

This message was self-deleted by its author arcane1 Apr 2014 #157

I think where there's despair, people turn to religion excessively, out of fear. Sarah Ibarruri Apr 2014 #131

I'm curious shanemcg Apr 2014 #132

Why wouldn't they? We get warnings for tornadoes and hurricanes, after all. arcane1 Apr 2014 #152

Our society puts up with their stupidity and criminality instead of holding them responsible Corruption Inc Apr 2014 #135

In another of my Emily Latella moments, I thought I was learning a new volcanic term... pacalo Apr 2014 #138

Reality has a liberal bias. --Stephen Colbert. Manifestor_of_Light Apr 2014 #139

Continuing to not support education = results like this. bobGandolf Apr 2014 #141

I wonder how much our educational system has declined... yuiyoshida Apr 2014 #148

too much love for tradition LostOne4Ever Apr 2014 #150

Two answers, propaganda and laziness. ladjf Apr 2014 #151

K&R. I agree. Pseudo science equals science for millions. Enthusiast Apr 2014 #153

The dogma of individualism YoungDemCA Apr 2014 #155

Religion + Anti-Intellectualism Arugula Latte Apr 2014 #161