We are not capable of truly reinforcing Eastern Europe, math is not on our side [View all]

[AnalystInParadise]

I don't care what the NATO commander says, he does not have the forces at his disposal. The Army has 44 Brigades, but the vast majority of them cannot go to Russia for various reasons. A unit in reset means that the unit has less than 60% of its normal personnel and is in the process of turning in and replacing worn out equipment from a recently completed deployment. Also it takes 3-6 months to generate the necessary combat power to deploy. Combat power is the numbers of well trained troops needed to complete a mission. A unit that is deactivating means that its personnel are being shipped off and its equipment is being used in other resets if possible. A unit deactivating is for all intents and purposes not a real unit, it is in the process of being cannibalized. The NIE unit at Bliss is off the table for any taskings as its soldiers and equipment are unable to deploy due to the experimental nature of their mission and the testing going on with NEXTGEN equipment. The NORTHCOM mission is the Homeland Defense/Civil Disorder mission and the Brigade on that mission is dedicated and non deployable. The AFRICOM mission is to support the SF/SEAL mission in Africa hunting the LRA and other groups such as Boko Haram. We also have the better part of a Brigade in South Korea showing our commitment to the South Koreans in face of recent North Korean aggressive moves.

So WHAT IS LEFT?

We have 11 Brigades that could go to Europe if a war broke out. But there is a catch. Of the 11 remaining Brigades only 2 are Armored (Heavy Brigades), the two Brigades from 3rd ID in Georgia are Tank and Mech heavy. They are the only credible counter to the Russians. Unfortunately it takes 60 days to fully deploy Armored Brigades. So any action by Russia would leave a 2 month window before we could ship the Brigades personnel and equipment to Eastern Europe. So that leaves 9 Brigades that could also go. Of the remaining 9, 4 are Stryker Brigades. Of this 4, three are on the West Coast and Alaska, about as far from Europe as you can get from Europe. Strykers can deploy faster, but the distance is huge and would mean a 45 day (roughly) time frame before they arrived in Eastern Europe. And one of the Brigades is in Alaska, not sure we would deploy them for Strategic purposes. The remaining 5 Brigades are all Airborne Infantry or Air Assault Infantry, not exactly the force you want going up against Russian armored forces. We can deploy them, but their weapons and capabilities are not configured to resist an Armored force. They could be in Eastern Europe and setup 2-3 weeks after a war began in Ukraine. So they could be used, but their mission profile does not match the Russian threat. In a 90 day window, we could deploy 10 Brigades, the equivalent of 45,000 soldiers, but doing so would leave us with ZERO RESERVES to face any other threat, and would also leave us with no replacement units if the war escalated. In essence, all we have to throw at Russia right now if we had to is 45,000 combat soldiers from the Army and about 25,000 Marines. That is it....there are no more due to our deployment commitments. It would take six months to a year to generate additional combat power from our reset units and the National Guard and Reserve.

We have two Brigades normally in Europe, but 1 of them (2nd Stryker) is in Afghanistan right now, leaving only another Airborne unit (173rd) in Italy as the only Combat Brigade in Europe right now.

What does this mean?

Our options are incredibly limited to successfully reinforce Eastern Europe with a credible defensive force. About all we could accomplish is to keep Russia out of Poland, but that doesn't seem to be the goal for Putin. Our chances of offensively moving into Ukraine with the forces available are not optimal for us. We would not send 25,000 Airborne Infantry soldiers into a fight against 50,000 Mech and Armored Russian soldiers. Especially since our current unit structure for Airborne/Air Assault is a Counter Insurgency fight, we have not trained to fight a conventional Armored threat for over a decade. Our training for these light forces is totally irrelevant and they would take large amounts of casualties.

We are not exactly screwed, but we are not really able to provide an effective military deterrent at this time. My background is a 20 year intelligence analyst for the Army (retired) who did a lot of work on Russia and Central Asia. We are in a tough spot and not likely to commit military forces. As for the Marine Corps, they are in a similar spot with about 25% of their combat power available, but facing the same logistical and deployment issues the Army has.

Army Breakdown:
Order of Battle: 44 Army Brigades

1st Armored Division,(Fort Bliss, TX) 4 Brigades
1st Brigade in reset (non-deployable)
2nd Brigade (NIE, Future War testing, non deployable)
3rd Brigade (deactivating right now, non deployable)
4th Brigade (NORTHCOM mission, non-deployable)

1st Infantry Division (Fort Riley Kansas) 4 Brigades
1st Brigade (deploying to Afghanistan on last deployment cycle)
2nd Brigade (AFRICOM mission, deploying to Africa)
3rd Brigade (deactivating right now, non deployable)
4th Brigade Deployable

1st Cavalry Division Fort Hood, TX/South Korea 4 Brigades
1st Brigade (reset non-deployable)
2nd Brigade (Deployed to Afghanistan)
3rd Brigade (Currently in South Korea on temporary mission)
4th Brigade (Deactivating right now, non deployable)

2nd Infantry Division Fort Lewis/South Korea 4 Brigades
1st Brigade (stationed in South Korea)
2nd Brigade Deployable (Stryker)
3rd Brigade Deployable (Stryker)
4th Brigade Deactivating right now

2nd Stryker Cavalry Brigade (Germany)
Deployed to Afghanistan

3rd Infantry Division Fort Stewart/Fort Benning GA 4 Brigades
1st Brigade (reset, non deployable)
2nd Brigade Deployable
3rd Brigade Deployable
4th Brigade (Reset, non deployable)

3rd ACR (Fort Hood, TX)
Deploying to Afghanistan in June

4th Infantry Division (Fort Carson, CO) 4 Brigades
1st Brigade (Reset, converting to Stryker Brigade, non deployable)
2nd Brigade (Deployed to Kuwait)
3rd Brigade (Deployable)
4th Brigade (Deploying to Afghanistan NOW)

10th Mountain Division (Fort Drum NY/Fort Polk LA) 4 Brigades
1st Brigade Deployed to Afghanistan
2nd Brigade Deployable
3rd Brigade Deployed to Afghanistan
4th Brigade (OPFOR Training unit, non deployable)

11th ACR (Fort Irwin, CA)
OPFOR training unit (non deployable)


25th Infantry Division (Schofield Barracks, HI, Alaska) 4 Brigades
1st Brigade (Alaska) Emergency deployment Brigade for Afghanistan (non deployable anywhere else)
2nd Brigade (Hawaii) PRF Pacific Response Force (non deployable)
3rd Brigade (Hawaii) PRF Pacific Response Force (non deployable
4th Brigade (Alaska) Deployable

82nd Airborne (Fort Bragg, NC) 4 Brigades
1st Brigade (deploying to Afghanistan for last rotation)
2nd Brigade Deployable
3rd Brigade Deployable
4th Brigade (Deactivating, non deployable)

101st Airborne (Fort Campbell, KY) 4 Brigades
1st Brigade (reset, non deployable)
2nd Brigade Deployed to Afghanistan
3rd Brigade Deployable
4th Brigade (Deactivating non deployable)

173rd Airborne Brigade (Italy)
Deployable