We are not capable of truly reinforcing Eastern Europe, math is not on our side

[AnalystInParadise]

107. It is sheer logistics and Sealift

China can right now transport 100,000 troops by sea in one move. 100,000 in the first wave, sounds good, right? Problem is most amphibious forces take 10%-15% casualties and that includes landing craft as well. So If 100,000 make it in the first wave, 85,000 would make it in the second wave, 70,000 in the third wave, except that is not correct, China would need to supply their troops as well as insert new troops, using the three to one tooth to tail ratio we already discussed, the follow on waves could only be 1/3 as strong in relation to the surviving landing craft, sea transports. So the second wave would be 30,000 to keep Chinese troops, fed, supplied and evac'ed due to casualties. The third wave would be 22,000. At this point Chinese has moved 150,000 troops across the strait. Sounds good, right? The Taiwanese standing Army is 150,000 equal to what China has transported. With Taiwanese reserves approaching 2 million and China lacking the transport assets to keep up their OPTEMPO, China would fail to conquer Taiwan. It is simple logistics, lift capability and numbers. China can't do it, this is why they have not done it. Give it ten years and China may be able to as they are currently converting their navy to a Blue water navy and also purchasing and constructing thousands of additional landing craft. But today, this year and next year and through 2020? Not a chance in hell, China knows they would be throwing away 100,000-200,000 men for no good reason.