We are not capable of truly reinforcing Eastern Europe, math is not on our side

[PATRICK]

128. No expert here

in any of the areas. Compared to overall scene setting- say before WWI- there is no Kaiser era offensive plan to "quickly" take out France, no any especially aggressive French defensive plan to counter the same. I would guess- for what is worth- that Russia has been hardened by experiences like Chechnya and Georgia to absorb the horrors of occupation and successful lately in winning by minimal means, succeeding in intimidating Europe. Everyone seems to be using the most hypocritical detente to advance the same old adversarial/takeover gambits except that Putin has rudely and insultingly and brutally turned the tables on most occasions always to his gain.

Economically they seem to have little real incentive to bow down to Europe anyway and any hardball comes sailing back with real force.

In any type of brinksmanship, which for Russia this seems all about, and more successful than the strutting North Korean madman routine, the danger is an accident or tinder struck somewhere in a volatile zone, like the death of Archduke Ferdinand. Who in retrospect would want to go through any scenario of war for that? It is an interesting and disheartening spectacle to see the whipping up of the post-Iraq NATO tiger for righteous defense and the likely satisfaction this must be granting Putin.

Unfortunately Kerry went on public record with how giving Russian some credit and "win" embarrassing the US in the chemical weapons "disarmament" advanced the goals of peace in Syria. When they turn around and take the initiative for purely their own benefit it seems like one of those "oh yeah?" moments in the game.

I would think, as a reasonable person, the aggressor will keep pushing his advantage which never has its goal a big war or costly occupation. Unfortunately, nothing on the entire world stage smacks of reason or sense whether the armies are prepared for the outcomes or not.

The contradictory nature of expensively crippling modernized warfare still leans on the aging nuclear fallback position at far too many decision points.
War is planned on paper by assuming the death of reason. Thus the outcome is fatally flawed.