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AnalystInParadise

(1,832 posts)

134. Are you for real?

Fri Apr 11, 2014, 01:46 PM

Apr 2014

Non-deployable units are non-deployable because they are at 60% manning or less. THEY CANNOT DEPLOY. A Mech Brigade with half its vehicles, 65% of it manpower and no unit cohesion WILL NOT DEPLOY. We did that once before Task Force Smith in Korea in 1950. We will not do that. And the troops in Afghanistan do not have Tanks, Bradleys, etc. They are outfitted and trained for a COIN fight, not a conventional war. Our battle training is based on fighting insurgents, outgunning them significantly, not being on the receiving end of artillery, air strikes, tanks and TRAINED Infantry. Look, every assumption I made is logical, yours are not based on the reality. I am sorry, it really is that simple, this is my job to know this stuff, I am not right all the time, but I know for a fact that non-deployable units would not deploy. No President, especially PBO is going to send untrained, undermanned, unequiped units to Ukraine.

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We are not capable of truly reinforcing Eastern Europe, math is not on our side [View all] AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 OP

For the record AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #1

I dont mean to be condescending or anything like that darkangel218 Apr 2014 #47

Everything I posted is open source AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #66

Ahh okay, thanks darkangel218 Apr 2014 #95

The only people who will get mad are Janes Recursion Apr 2014 #109

LOL AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #110

They still have the hull numbers on the USN's LCAC fleet wrong Recursion Apr 2014 #112

'Homeland Defense/Civil Disorder' mission? House of Roberts Apr 2014 #2

2012 AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #7

Thanks Obama? House of Roberts Apr 2014 #27

we won't have a shooting war with russia. nt dionysus Apr 2014 #3

I agree AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #10

Excellent analysis BlindTiresias Apr 2014 #4

Unsure AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #11

Well, it wouldn't be just us. And a war is not all army. TwilightGardener Apr 2014 #5

No it wouldn't be all Army AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #9

Again, though, it would be a NATO effort to defend Poland or Latvia or whatever. TwilightGardener Apr 2014 #17

And what NATO forces are you talking about AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #21

We are not going to war for Ukraine, either. I'm talking about TwilightGardener Apr 2014 #26

A breakdown of NATO shows it is strong enough to deter Russia AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #31

Honestly there is only one fear AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #34

Analyst BlindTiresias Apr 2014 #19

Depends AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #24

Assumptions are wrong 4Q2u2 Apr 2014 #132

Are you for real? AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #134

Am I for Real 4Q2u2 Apr 2014 #135

Spin up fast? AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #137

What happened to 2ACR? Adsos Letter Apr 2014 #6

2ACR AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #8

Thanks! Where are they posted in Germany, now that border duty isn't a thing? Adsos Letter Apr 2014 #12

Vilseck AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #13

Hah! And their arty FOs are probably stuck adjusting fire for every unit that Adsos Letter Apr 2014 #16

Curiously, my old battalion from Vietnam recently was reactivated with a different division pinboy3niner Apr 2014 #29

If NATO goes to war against Russia...the human race may not survive davidn3600 Apr 2014 #14

You assume the Russians would go nuclear. They won't, and it is Western misunderstanding AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #18

If Russia invades a NATO nation....we are at war davidn3600 Apr 2014 #22

We are not is disagreement about what happens IF AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #25

If a confrontation erupted with Russia now.... idendoit Apr 2014 #92

You seem to assume that NATO would gain Air Superiority AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #97

Russian pilots are trained not to take the initiative. idendoit Apr 2014 #98

Because there is a military profile for the military AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #100

Thank you for your service. idendoit Apr 2014 #102

That is definitely an advantage AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #103

We never were... TreasonousBastard Apr 2014 #15

You were able to get weed? Adsos Letter Apr 2014 #20

You're right... TreasonousBastard Apr 2014 #28

Just adding some grain to the grist nadinbrzezinski Apr 2014 #23

Just out of curiosity AcertainLiz Apr 2014 #30

Right now AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #32

Kind of a frightening thought in a way AcertainLiz Apr 2014 #33

We have the manpower AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #35

No one would use nukes? AcertainLiz Apr 2014 #36

Why would it be logical? AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #37

Well, if you feel like you're going to be defeated and taken over AcertainLiz Apr 2014 #40

But launching nukes would kill your own people AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #41

There's been a lot of close calls, no? AcertainLiz Apr 2014 #42

There were two close calls in 50 years AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #44

Well there was the Norwegian incident in the 90s AcertainLiz Apr 2014 #45

I don't mean to nitpick AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #46

They weren't close calls? AcertainLiz Apr 2014 #48

Putin put 'limited' nuclear strikes into the Russian playbook Bosonic Apr 2014 #50

NATO "reenforcing Eastern EU" = Nukes joshcryer Apr 2014 #38

The NATO commander AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #39

In NATO states. joshcryer Apr 2014 #43

The Russians wouldn't be able to hit the US with nukes? AcertainLiz Apr 2014 #49

No, ABM and SBIRS are perfected. joshcryer Apr 2014 #51

What if they fired nukes high enough in the atmosphere AcertainLiz Apr 2014 #52

I am saying simply US can destroy them all. joshcryer Apr 2014 #53

But I don't see how we could destroy either nukes denotated in the atmosphere AcertainLiz Apr 2014 #54

Atmo nukes, or "Strangelove" nukes aren't considered. joshcryer Apr 2014 #56

Well, if I may ask, what's your sources? AcertainLiz Apr 2014 #57

complete and utter bullshit shaayecanaan Apr 2014 #62

Technology has increased exponentially... joshcryer Apr 2014 #81

They're not shaayecanaan Apr 2014 #101

I am highly dubious of the 99.9% claim Kelvin Mace Apr 2014 #130

Would not bet on that myself BlindTiresias Apr 2014 #74

I am not as sanguine about ABM systems Kelvin Mace Apr 2014 #82

Also BlindTiresias Apr 2014 #116

what do you think of this scenario politicman Apr 2014 #60

On the bright side CFLDem Apr 2014 #65

All this discussion about what various leaders in the US and Russia would do has been-- eridani Apr 2014 #55

I doubt either want war. AcertainLiz Apr 2014 #58

I think that we are paying way to much attention to Putin avebury Apr 2014 #59

You seem to be planning to fight WW3 muriel_volestrangler Apr 2014 #61

I am not planning or supporting anything. AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #67

The OP is too long and boring to read carefully muriel_volestrangler Apr 2014 #68

Actually, I am not talking about that at all. AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #70

That OP was an informative and very interesting read. Desert805 Apr 2014 #76

Strangely enough, no, the dispostion of every brigade in the US army is not interesting muriel_volestrangler Apr 2014 #79

WTH? AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #85

I am not saying you are advocating total war; I'm saying you're analysing it muriel_volestrangler Apr 2014 #88

Ok AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #91

Its your scenario of sending massive numbers of troops to Ukraine - or Russia! - in the OP muriel_volestrangler Apr 2014 #93

No I am not. AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #94

That quote is from your OP. muriel_volestrangler Apr 2014 #96

No AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #99

I'm afraid of war breaking out any minute now... AcertainLiz Apr 2014 #69

But that's just on DU pinboy3niner Apr 2014 #71

Nah, I deeply am afraid. I don't want to see some full-scale war break out. AcertainLiz Apr 2014 #73

The prospect of war is still pretty remote pinboy3niner Apr 2014 #78

My fear is rationality will fly out the window as tensions rise. AcertainLiz Apr 2014 #122

I already knew that... shaayecanaan Apr 2014 #63

"What chance do they have against a great power"...seriously? TwilightGardener Apr 2014 #64

Russia is not a great military power hack89 Apr 2014 #72

I agree Russia is not a first rate military power AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #75

Hopefully we will never have to find out. nt hack89 Apr 2014 #77

Devils advocate nadinbrzezinski Apr 2014 #108

Genghis Khan could shaayecanaan Apr 2014 #111

I know, but just wanted to point out that Afghanistan is exactly where empires nadinbrzezinski Apr 2014 #115

I like this RobertEarl Apr 2014 #80

This is my first thought as well NobodyHere Apr 2014 #84

How does China figure into this? Kelvin Mace Apr 2014 #83

China remains AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #86

Thank you for your exteremly informative Kelvin Mace Apr 2014 #127

carrier groups are great for mobility, but not so great against a whole enemy country politicman Apr 2014 #89

Carriers are great as a mobile projection of power Kelvin Mace Apr 2014 #126

Can China's carrier steam under its own power yet? Recursion Apr 2014 #105

It is sheer logistics and Sealift AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #107

What I read about the carrier Kelvin Mace Apr 2014 #125

So, the joke is, China doesn't need a carrier Recursion Apr 2014 #129

Well, it is the PR Kelvin Mace Apr 2014 #131

It definitely did Recursion Apr 2014 #133

China will take Taiwan without a shot being fired LittleBlue Apr 2014 #117

This is more likely AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #119

By the way, your OP is superb LittleBlue Apr 2014 #120

Thank you very much AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #121

Mao said it to Kissinger Recursion Apr 2014 #124

k&r for exposure. n/t Laelth Apr 2014 #87

Even at the height of the Cold War.... idendoit Apr 2014 #90

The Corps gets ignored again... Recursion Apr 2014 #104

Marine Corps was not ignored AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #106

Correct but Separation Apr 2014 #113

I don't think we could ever really make the armed forces able to defend Europe AcertainLiz Apr 2014 #123

Yes, but could we arm a resistance to the teeth? Hippo_Tron Apr 2014 #114

Since the Russians AnalystInParadise Apr 2014 #118

No expert here PATRICK Apr 2014 #128

Good. Maybe diplomacy and cooler heads will prevail. Tierra_y_Libertad Apr 2014 #136