Regarding the threats of Ukrainian "civil war." [View all]

[Tommy_Carcetti]

Ukraine has been an independent nation for 22 years now. It's had five different leaders, all corrupt to varying extents, but none of them could remotely be considered a Tito-esqe strongman capable of uniting a balkanized nation of various peoples that would otherwise not co-exist with one another.

Ukraine was Ukraine, with there being a fair share of tensions between the eastern and western portions of the country but nothing that came remotely to the point of splitting the country.

Then, after Yanukoych fled the country, we had an interim government come in to govern in the run-up to the May elections. You had Russia screaming that the interim government was "illegitimate" and you had more than a few useful idiots willing to eat that propaganda up, willingly or not. As a result, Ukraine was arguably in its most vulnerable state that it had ever been in since becoming independent.

And you better believe the Russians knew this.

And you better believe that the fact that calls for Russian annexation of Crimea never happened until this point was a direct result of the Russians knowing this.

And you better believe that these militants that have suddenly popped up in government buildings in Eastern Ukraine flying the Russian flag and calling for Russian annexation was the direct result of the Russians knowing this.

And that quote that Vladimir Putin gave years ago about the breakup of the USSR being the greatest tragedy in Russian history because of all the Russians he claimed were "lost" to other countries....this was prime time for Vlad to act on that sentiment.

Fact of the matter though is that the ethnic Russians are a minority, even in Eastern Ukraine. There was never a huge populist movement in Eastern Ukraine demanding that portion of the country be ceded to Russia. Now, I do know that many Eastern Ukrainians would like to see more regional authority be given to it. However, the interim government has actually expressed an interest in speaking with Eastern Ukrainian regions about this possibility, and it's something that could probably be worked out as the nation moves on in its turbulent history.

So civil war, with Eastern Ukrainians demanding independence from the rest of Ukraine, probably isn't the most likely of scenarios.

On the other hand, the clear and present danger to Ukraine is a military entanglement with Russia. This could come in one of two ways. It could result in a direct military confrontation with Russia where Russia moves in to "protect" ethnic Russians from unspecified threats. Or, as we are seeing know, it could merely be a proxy war, with these militants acting on behalf of Russia with Russian support but not with official Russian involvement.

That's the real danger to Ukraine right now. Not civil war.