General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: How can we have democracy when half the population holds 20% of the Senate? [View all]Gothmog
(184,540 posts)Redistricting is done every ten years and due to the four year presidential cycle, redistricting occurs on both presidential and mid term elections. 2010 was a mid term election and the GOP was able to lock in gains in redistricting. 2000 was a year when the GOP won the White House (thanks to Nader and the SCOTUS) but according to the current demographic trends, 2020 should be a good year for Democrats. Even in 2000, the Texas GOP had to resort to mid term redistricting to undo some of the results of the 2000 redistricting.
I would love to see non-partisan redistricting programs like the one in California go into effect for all of the states including blue states. There are some really interesting districts in Illinois. In the mean time, we need to work like crazy to try to mitigate the effects of the GOP gerrymandered districts. If the generic ballot differential is more than 8% to 10%, then we can retake the House. In 2006, the GOP redistricting did not matter much.
The GOP may start becoming reasonable if they see the 2020 election look like a large Democratic sweep at the state level and may be willing to compromise on redistricting.
Finally, the Texas redistricting case go to trial in July of this year. The Democrats and the DOJ have a good case. That case may lessen the effect of the GOP redistricting in Texas. The State of Texas would save a great deal of money if it used non-partisan redistricting methods.
In addition, the same conservative group who won in the Shelby County case just filed suit in Texas on Texas State Senate cases. http://electionlawblog.org/?p=60696 The redistricting cases going to trial on July do not include Texas State Senate seats but this case is making an interesting argument based on population differences between districts compared to voting age populations of districts. Again, this lawsuit is being brought by the same conservative group who won the Shelby County case.