I think NATO expansion was stupid, and on Twitter I had a, shall we say, vigorous discussion with someone who was trying to make the case that it wasn't. But Ukraine gets to decide who rules there, no matter how distasteful that choice may be to us or anyone else, not Russia. I don't buy that we had so much influence there that it would outweigh what the FSB could covertly do. That's just implausible.
That's number one. Secondly, if the Russians are paranoid about their borders, restarting all the old ethnic divisions by asserting their "historical" connection to Crimea was not the way to go. Down that path lies far more madness than I think they're really prepared to have to deal with, especially given they still have so many minorities in their own country.
Had they taken their case to the court of world opinion, I think they had a very strong case to make. Publicly asserting their very strong interest in keeping Sevastopol was something well within their rights; naval exercises to make that point; bringing up the above re NATO expansion and sternly asserting their displeasure with that; economic pressure on Ukraine re their gas bills; all would have made their case without reopening this can of worms. Even their growing ties with Hungary were a way of very plainly making their point without resorting to outright annexation. But the act of annexation was what threatens to now unleash all the old ethnic demons. Now you have the far right in all kinds of different countries around Europe sitting up and saying to their leaders what Jobbik is saying to Hungary's: why aren't you more like Putin?
This is very dangerous.
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