Economists Think That Wages Are Going to Rise This Year. They should think again.

[Savannahmann]

1. The economists are basing their assumption on the official unemployment number

The problem is that this particular number is false, and has been for generations. It doesn't take into account those who have "left" the labor force, in other words, they've given up.

There are 92 million people who are not in the labor force. That is approaching the 1/3 ratio that is flatly unsupportable. Yet we celebrate every month and shout at the RW that Obama is kicking ass in Job creation. In 2004, there were 75 million not in the labor force. That number has gone up to 92 million so far this year, and it stands to increase dramatically.

There are nearly 5% of our workers that are multiple job holders. In other words, they get off work, and then go start a second job.

I'll be honest, I'm torn personally on the minimum wage thing. Yes, I want people to make more money. But when I go to McDonalds, I see machines doing things that many years ago I did as a 16 and 17 year old lad. Today, the cup is dropped into a ring, and it spins to the ice drop, where the proper amount of ice is placed into the cup. Then the cup spins around and the beverage of choice is deployed. All the human does is put the lid on and hand it to the customer along with a straw. Back in the old days, I was the mechanism that put ice in the cup, selected the drink to be dispensed and all that sort of thing, and then gave the cup to the person at the register to give to the customer.

The fries are similar. A machine shoots fries into a basket, and then drops the basket into the oil. When they are halfway done cooking, they are taken from the oil and shaken, by the machine. I did that job too many years ago.

So I believe the estimate that half a million jobs will be lost. Because in my life I've seen many jobs replaced by machines.

As I said I am torn, because I want people to make more money, but I am also wary of even more people ending up in that 92 million unemployed list.

I know, you doubt my numbers, well they're available from the BLS website here. Check them out yourself. I wish I was making them up, I really do.