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AnalystInParadise

(1,832 posts)
10. To be fair
Mon May 19, 2014, 08:32 PM
May 2014

the electorate in 2010 was 35R, 35D and 29I.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls.main/#

I am not buying 39% for the Rethugs, but I am betting 35% or even as high as 36%. For us to be down 1% off of 2010, I consider that possible, even likely. Let's be honest for a second. PBO is tracking at an average of 43-45% in the aggregated polls. That is not a great spot. We are not doomed, we are not screwed, but we have the wind in our faces heading into November. If anyone thinks the Thugs are not going to match the 35% share they received in 2010 or even slightly higher, then that person is deluded. We can keep the Senate if we fight as though we are behind. The House is likely not coming back our way. Too much redistricting, it would take a wave election for us to even get close to taking it back. Right now unless something drastic happens, our majority in the Senate is going to shrink. I don't know how much, but unless we win Kentucky and Georgia then we are set to lose something. Instead of calling every poll bullshit, let's treat it as though it might be true and we work all the harder to hold on to the Senate.

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