Casting the Ideal Challenger to Hillary Clinton

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12. will a serious challenger emerge from the left?

Put Warren and Sanders aside (because, who knows what they'll do and their decision to run seems like a longshot to me)

ANY challenger will have to, either, craft a campaign that appeals to all of the disparate interests out there - strike a workable balance - or, they'll need to begin the process of garnering the support needed for whatever progressive ideals they want to promote. That support-garnering effort can come from capitalizing on some galvanizing attitude or event. But, ideally, the candidates, themselves, will need folks to respond to the strength of their personality, almost as much as folks respond to the issues they're presenting.

Right now, the level of interest in a Clinton campaign is built on the strength of the public's identification with her on a personal level, more than it's based on some policy position or some ideology. Of course, with folks who are more attuned to policy and ideology, the political lines are already drawn for a Clinton candidacy.

Rank-and-file voters - those who vote regularly (sids, if you will) - look for someone who they believe will defeat the opposition challenger in the general when they vote in the primary. Even folks who care deeply about the advancement of progressive issues can be motivated, in the end, to vote for an 'electable' candidate. That's what motivates these 'moderate' candidates to hedge their appeal and to avoid offending someone they feel is important to their election.

If there is no force of personality (like in the Obama and Clinton candidacies) which can get voters to believe in these folks personally, they stand little chance of overcoming the 'electable' vote and achieving anything revolutionary - even in their own party's primary. We all love to debate issues here, but these elections don't normally rise and fall on the issues.

We should never loose sight of the responsibility these candidates have for their rise or fall. They either toe a predictable and safe line; or, they craft a new, challenging one that appeals to a broader set of voters, in most cases, changes their minds.

Hillary is the status quo. That's not as unpopular among Dem voters as some would have you believe. It's not going to be easy to knock her off of that perch. It's going to take a strong and forceful personality; not just another batch of establishment folks who've made a career of adhering to the norm.