The Republican Party is NOT Sustainable

[Motown_Johnny]

19. IMO, 2020 should be an interesting year.

By then, estimates show, that the white vote will have fallen to around 2/3s while the non-white vote will have risen to roughly 1/3. This really should be the breaking point for the (R)s. (see link below for context)

If you remember the "un-skewed polls" prediction in the last cycle, it was based on a ~74% white electorate. It turned out to be more like 72% and Pres. Obama won in an electoral landslide. Even in 2016 the electorate should be only about 69% white (give or take a little). I think the (R)s can still make a show of it in 2016, and if our nominee does something to self destruct then they might even have a shot at winning the White House.

By 2020 though, even a self destructive (D) may be able to still win. I think it is already to late for the (R)s to make any serious gains in minority votes by then. Even passing Immigration Reform today would not have a big enough impact simply because of the fact that the (R)s have been fighting it so long. The divide is clear and 6 years isn't long enough to breach that divide.


There are also estimates which predict renewable power (solar and wind) will reach grid parity as soon as 2020. At this point the entire rational for fossil fuels subsidies begins to fade away. Once clean renewable electricity can be purchased by the average consumer for the same price as coal produced electricity then the arguments that the (R)s have been making for decades become exposed for what they were. Just lies which hurt this country, and the planet, in order to benefit the fossil fuel industry which in turn financed political careers.

Then there is the 2020 census, and the redrawing of congressional districts based on those numbers. I think that this decade long disadvantage that we have been at will be somewhat reduced. I don't expect it to really end until 2030, but the 20s should not be as bad.


On a side note. Without "Obamacare", Medicare would go bankrupt in 2016. So we will need to do the math and figure out (as best we can) an exact date and make a HUGE deal about it when it comes around. Then from that day forward we can all point out that the people who wanted to repeal the ACA would have make Medicare go bankrupt and seniors would all be without health care. Over and over and over again, we need to beat that into the heads of everyone. Especially people who are actually on Medicare at the time.



Modern conservatism is not sustainable. I agree. The Republican Party may continue to exist in some form, but not as we see it now. It is this extreme form of faith based conservatism that simply can't continue on a national level. The extremists seem to be headed toward a regional party which will have little to no effect on national policy decisions. Just small havens for people who are able to believe what they want to believe no matter the evidence which points elsewhere. In time even this is unsustainable. It may take a generation or two, but eventually people in those havens will want to have some voice in national policy. I think that I am old enough to not see that day, but I am fairly sure it will come.








for context: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002975365