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JackRiddler

(24,979 posts)
Thu Jul 17, 2014, 04:20 PM Jul 2014

The "Archduke Ferdinand" Moment in Ukraine? [View all]

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Eastern Ukraine is a warzone with the Kiev military engaged in aerial bombardments as well as RPGs and missiles flying from all sides. I can't believe anyone was still passing passenger planes above that territory, but apparently everyone was! Why, to keep up appearances?

It's near certain that either the Kiev military or the Donetsk forces shot the Malaysian plane down by mistake. Obviously there is no imaginable reason for the Russian military to ever contemplate doing so, and that is an insane idea! Or rather, just the usual bloodthirsty war-mongering from the McCain-neocon faction. (I noticed it was echoed right away by U.S.-based "Syrian revolutionary" spokespeople on social media, so there's definitely a line there. I've also seen Israeli defenders seriously blame the "Hamas violence" on Russia, since Putin is the Hitler du Jour, although he in turn has also been backing Israel.)

There is also no particular reason so far to believe in a Western, U.S., globalist or other "Them" behind this incident, as some people here are conditioned to think predictably. That this can be an "Archduke Ferdinand" moment is obvious, and it's only a couple of weeks after the 100th anniversary.

Yesterday the BRICS announced their initiative to create an alternative to World Bank and IMF. The U.S. news was instead full of an inexplicable escalation in the sanctions against the Russian government for its supposed material support of the Donetsk Republic. This obviously makes for interesting timing.

In recent weeks Moscow has clearly sought to defuse the Ukraine crisis and made no major moves in support of the eastern Ukrainian uprising, despite the murderous offensives by a Kiev government that still includes neo-Nazis in its cabinet. To say so is not to "support Putin" but merely to understand that Moscow acts according to the accustomed rules of power and realpolitik. Russia's interest is clearly not to contribute to the bloodbath or to try to absorb a potentially intractable ethnic civil war within its own territory but to see the situation stabilized and the payments on its gas bills resumed.

The U.S. demand that the Ukraine-Russia border be altogether sealed is impossible for Russia both politically and physically. As long as Kiev pursues a violent solution to the reluctance of Russian Ukrainians to accept the new status quo, Russians in turn will support their ethnic brethren without need of any orders from Moscow. Meanwhile it's been admitted officially that CIA and FBI both are assisting the Yatsenyuk government in its attacks on the ethnic Russian areas, and very likely that Western mercenaries are mixed in with the forces conducting the offensive, which are largely irregulars recruited from the ranks of Svoboda and Right Sector. There have been cases of disobedience and desertion among Ukrainian army regulars, unsurprisingly.

This is an incredibly dangerous moment for the U.S. to be escalating the rhetoric or the material support, and the neocons and other warmongers with their instant accusations that Russia directly downed the plane (why the fuck?!) are literally trying to start a new World War with Russia.

Let's remember earlier accidents like the downing of the Iranian airbus and the bombing of the USS Stark by the government of then US ally Saddam. Which is to say, patience! No premature verdicts!

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Vibes to all the families. May this hurt the warmongers applegrove Jul 2014 #1
So do you think that this Archduke Ferdinand moment will spark a conflict and escalate SummerSnow Jul 2014 #2
No, I'm thinking it has that potential. JackRiddler Jul 2014 #5
Thom mentioned this too...I worry about ANY neocon/rightwing influence in the WH whether randys1 Jul 2014 #3
if you mean it will result in a world war, No , but if you mean it may result in some huge change JI7 Jul 2014 #4
At present I'd invoke KAL 007 or the USS Vincennes over Franz Ferdinand... JHB Jul 2014 #6
My best guess is that it's not Algernon Moncrieff Jul 2014 #7
No. Rex Jul 2014 #8
Pre-WWI Europe was a very different place, so no, closeupready Jul 2014 #9
So was 1962 Cuba. JackRiddler Jul 2014 #18
It could go hot anytime.... SidDithers Jul 2014 #10
I know. It felt weird to me also. Maybe it is just the WWI documentaries I have been watching lately anneboleyn Jul 2014 #55
Breaking: Ukrainian Security Chief Accuses Russian Intel... JackRiddler Jul 2014 #11
No. joshcryer Jul 2014 #12
Thank you, Jen Psaki. JackRiddler Jul 2014 #13
Huh? Obama has no problem using drones. joshcryer Jul 2014 #14
Wait, you're proposing U.S. war in Ukraine?! JackRiddler Jul 2014 #16
I'm saying what's going to happen. joshcryer Jul 2014 #20
I'm alleging nothing, unlike you. JackRiddler Jul 2014 #22
The rebels already said they did it. joshcryer Jul 2014 #24
Try linking to back up your claims. JackRiddler Jul 2014 #26
Here you go: joshcryer Jul 2014 #30
Very good. JackRiddler Jul 2014 #35
I think the "second plane" was a rumor. joshcryer Jul 2014 #36
I have that uneasy feeling. Brigid Jul 2014 #15
No. Itchinjim Jul 2014 #17
No. No similarity to Archduke Ferdinand assassination whatsoever. HooptieWagon Jul 2014 #19
Sigh. JackRiddler Jul 2014 #23
No, because there aren't entangling alliances... HooptieWagon Jul 2014 #27
I hope you're right. JackRiddler Jul 2014 #29
in that scenario Maylaysia is the offended party, but not likely to declare war on anyone nt msongs Jul 2014 #21
Less literalism, please. JackRiddler Jul 2014 #25
Pure Hyperbole. HooptieWagon Jul 2014 #28
Okay, be as literalist as you like. JackRiddler Jul 2014 #31
If the Yugoslavian civil war didn't start WW3.... HooptieWagon Jul 2014 #37
You got it. Springslips Jul 2014 #45
This situation is not remotely similar to the Jenoch Jul 2014 #32
"The Russians"? "The Ukrainians"? JackRiddler Jul 2014 #33
Some of the Russian separatists might be Jenoch Jul 2014 #38
I'm not speculating. JackRiddler Jul 2014 #39
If Putin did not provid the Russian SAMs, Jenoch Jul 2014 #41
The Ukrainian army reorg Jul 2014 #42
Shhh! None of this obvious stuff, please. JackRiddler Jul 2014 #44
Even if the SAM battery was once under control of the Ukrainian government, amandabeech Jul 2014 #54
I give you credit for trying - TBF Jul 2014 #34
Something like that, yeah. JackRiddler Jul 2014 #40
I thought your post 39 TBF Jul 2014 #43
Thanks. JackRiddler Jul 2014 #52
The BUK system requires extensive training. roamer65 Jul 2014 #46
Some of the separatists are Ukrainian military. JackRiddler Jul 2014 #51
Perhaps dflprincess Jul 2014 #47
I thought about "Archduke Ferdinand" as soon as I heard this news. Renew Deal Jul 2014 #48
I actually thought of this also. 100 years ago this summer. anneboleyn Jul 2014 #53
Uuuuuuuuuuuuuhhhhhhhh.....................................no. eom MohRokTah Jul 2014 #49
Some guy on CNN just compared it to the Lucitania Renew Deal Jul 2014 #50
No, not even a Juvénal Habyarimana moment Capt. Obvious Jul 2014 #56
2001: Ukraine military accidentally shot down passenger plane JackRiddler Jul 2014 #57
It is WWIII economically lovuian Jul 2014 #58
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