What would it take for the GOP to lose the House?

[TheKentuckian]

37. Do you believe we actually have an advantage in those gerrymandered districts though?

The over vote in metros and some states around the country doesn't help. In other words is that raw numbers advantage widely distributed enough to carry the day?

To be honest, I'm doubtful that is the case. We are in many cases self gerrymandering by location. Yarmuth might win Louisville by 20 points but that doesn't carry over to the next district, the raw vote just doesn't mean so much in 535 local races.
Our ability to pick up seats is a district by district question, which means looking at those individual races and flipping them rather than raw turnout.

Also, some of the numbers are phantom for all intents and purposes. You can only put so much into party ID because states like my own Kentucky and Oklahoma have ID advantage in spades but here it does not translate at all into votes for Federal office because we are essentially a Democratic machine state and for local offices, if you wish to participate in the primary you have to be a Democrat but you can bet your ass that many of these folks will never vote for a Democrat for national office even if they also never vote for a Republican locally (ie we have only had TWO TERMS of a Republican in the governor's mansion since reconstruction but will overwhelmingly send idiots like Rand Paul, Mitch McConnell, and Jim Bunning to Washington and will vote for almost any Republican for President).

I suspect Oklahoma is similar and we probably aren't the only ones in the country that are so functionally odd.

I think turnout is key but far less of a magic bullet than many make out.

What does it take to flip the House is better answered by how do we flip this race and this one and that one over there. GOTV is always going to be a part of the answer but in almost every case, only a part and when faced with the actual dynamic it seems like we get too deep into the weeds with way too many balls in the air for most folks to process. Folks like simple and easy and overcoming the current level of gerrymandering, sleazy election officials, and cheating computers isn't a one line or a single word solution.

Most of us can GOTV till the cows come home and it makes little effective difference, we are in blue districts and so what tends to happen is we are just running up the score in a game already won.