What if the CDC plane carrying the Ebola victims crashed on American soil?

[The Traveler]

86. It should have burned itself out by now

Which is why the on scene people are wondering. Studies in 2012 showed existing strains could be passed through the air attached to mucous droplets ... like a sneeze. But there is no real evidence this has happened in the field. Speculation has been fueled by the observation that the infected American medical staff were known for being diligent about their precautions. So how were they exposed? And the outbreak is not following the typical pattern ... but this strain has a more variable, longer incubation period and that alone may be sufficient to account for that. My point is, the matter of vectors is somewhat uncertain.

Looking for that article ... dammit I wish I had book marked that.

As for mocking ... hell, this thread is full of it. I shall refrain from my vantage point less than 12 miles from the Emory campus from expressing my appreciation for that.

And in this era, everything gets politicized whether it should be or not. Nathan Deal is going down unless he pulls something out of his ass. Believe me, this is a gift. He'll use it. The locals aren't happy, and that is pretty much a bipartisan consensus among my neighbors. Hell, I am not exactly thrilled myself.

Your position is ... what can go wrong? I am not a medical expert. I am an aerospace and software guy. Degree in physics and all. Biology involves icky goopy stuff ... it ain't my field at all. But I can do math. And I used to get paid to do risk analysis. Was pretty good at it, too.

And I am a BELIEVER. I BELIEVE in Murphy's Law. lol!

It is not that I don't have confidence in the Emory/CDC team. I know people who are likely on the very team in question. (I will NOT be bothering them with my questions about this.) These are very smart, skilled, highly trained people. The probabilities are very high that this virus will never come within a meter of escaping its containment. But breeches have happened before. Murphy will have his due from time to time.

And again ... it is all about the consequences. The risk is lower than perceived by the general public but the consequences are higher than you acknowledge. If this breaks out through Emory personnel, it is in Decatur, L5P or Virginia Highlands in 12 hours. If it gets there, it is on an airplane the next day. We used to have facilities out in the middle of the Utah desert for this kind of situation ... where an accident could be contained. There is little prospect for containing that here.

It's kinda like my beef with nuclear power. The odds of a containment failure at any given plant on any given day are low. But each day is a roll of the dice. Eventually, you lose. Now ... what are the consequences of that failure? How do you mitigate and constrain those? Thankfully, in this situation, we can expect a far shorter series of dice rolls.

So I very much hope you are right and my concerns are completely unfounded. Color me unconvinced.

Trav