Nixon's Vietnam Treason (George Will Confirms)

[happyslug]

22. If LBJ released it, it is used up.

LBJ had been in the Senate for years before he became Vice President, thus learned that blackmail is more effective long term then short term, i.e. keep the black mail item secret EXCEPT to the victim of the blackmail (in this case Nixon) and use that black mail over and over again as long as the victim fears the blackmail. If you release the blackmail, the damage to the victim is done and they can address it. If you just THREATENED to release the blackmail the victim does NOT know its full impact, thus will pay more to keep it secret then they would have to spend to address it when it is releases.

I suspect this is what LBJ was doing, he wanted to preserve his Great Society Programs, that Nixon was on record on wanting to kill. Thus when Nixon did win, LBJ could black mail Nixon to force Nixon to implement those programs (Which Nixon ended up doing, through he did kill many of them). LBJ always throught long term AND what would his enemies do if they were in power.

As to releasing them in the 1968 election, Nixon would have dismissed the accusations and even the tapes as election years politics. Furthermore the American Population opinion on Vietnam was in Flux, till about June 1968 the Majority of Americans still supported the war in Vietnam and when the Majority shifted to opposition, LBJ actually started to pull out troops. LBJ remembered the 1950s and "Who Lost China" argument of the GOP (It was a line to blame the Democrats on China becoming Communists). Thus until the Majority of Americas started to oppose the War, LBJ was going to stay in Vietnam, it was the price he had to pay to get his Great Society Program passed and implemented. LBJ did NOT want to give the GOP any quick one liners thus LBJ send in the troops for the American People wanted them to go (And LBJ started to pull the Troops out once the American People wanted them out).

On the other hand, LBJ knew that you had a corp of voters who would shift from the Democratic Party to the GOP on Vietnam (Thus LBJ told Humphrey NOT to become anti-war in the actual Campaign). Nixon was already the "Peace Candidate" in the 1968 Campaign and if you listen to the actual tapes, all Nixon is saying is wait till after the Election and I will make sure you get a better deal then the South Vietnamese Government was getting in the 1968 negotiations. Nixon would have responded to that release of tapes, as first, how dare the US RECORD private conversation and point out the LBJ as "Big Brother" AND then just say the statement was just his way of encouraging the South Vietnamese to participate in the negotiations.

Thus the actual recording would have a flare for a week or so, and then quickly forgotten by most voters. On the other hand, if kept back and used as blackmail, could be used over and over again for Nixon would NOT know how bad the release of the recordings would have been and thus give in to avoid the recordings being released.

Thus I can see LBJ thinking, just releasing the tapes would use up they value quickly, maybe be used up within a week. On the other hand Nixon could NOT know that and would do almost anything to avoid those tapes being released every time the threat of they being released was made. LBJ had a hammer on Nixon that LBJ was NOT going to waste just to get Humphrey elected.

I am of the opinion that even the Watergate break in was to get those tapes, nothing else justified the risk of getting caught. That is how much Nixon feared those tapes. Worse it was a unjustified fear, for I think like LBJ, those tapes could be addressed quickly on freedom of Speech AND support for Negotiations positions and quickly forgotten, but Nixon was so paranoid that LBJ saw he could use them as a hammer.