General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: The inevitable Hillary will lead to President Rand Paul. [View all]stevenleser
(32,886 posts)For one thing, studies and polling of different segments of the Republican party to determine what their beliefs are and what issues are important to them gives you a clue as to what kind of candidates they will support.
Lots of research has been done that has told us that those who vote Republican can be thought of as belonging to one of 5-7 groups according to what issues are important to them. Among those are Christian Conservatives and Neocons.
Christian Conservatives are those who are anti-choice, anti-LGBT, etc. Those issues are the most important to them and as a result, those people hate Libertarian social policy and are deeply suspicious of candidates from the Libertarian wing of the Republican Party. They are around 25% of the GOP electorate.
NeoConservatives advocate an interventionalist foreign policy. They are between 15 and 20% of the party. They hate Libertarian foreign policy because Libertarians are isolationalists.
You think its embarrassing to look at what issues are important to people to determine whether a specific kind of candidate has a shot at their vote? That isnt a poll of current preferences, those are deeply held beliefs for those people. This is why Ron Paul, for all the enthusiasm in his supporters, couldnt get anywhere in the bid for the Republican nomination the last two times and it is why his son faces an uphill battle this time. Can he get it while 40-45% of the party is steadfastly against him based on deeply held values? Highly doubtful. And if he does manage to squeak by, he has zero chance against any Democrat that has reasonably secured the base.