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jeff47

(26,549 posts)
183. Really? I'm so wrong you completely changed the subject?
Sun Aug 24, 2014, 06:52 PM
Aug 2014
Nope, they don't apply to what I am talking about.

That's 'cause when you realized 2006 pretty much annihilates your claims about the accuracy of polls this far from elections are, you changed to talking about how they show "deeply held beliefs".

Which then runs smack into:
Nope, I'm not. I am saying who cannot win based on analysis of deeply held beliefs of segments of the GOP.

Which is why Republicans voted against their deeply held beliefs to vote for Romney in 2012.

Apples and Oranges. Healthcare has never been a deeply held belief of any segment of the GOP.

So....you miss the 40+ repeal votes? Or are you going to argue that attempting to repeal a law more than 40 times is done because it isn't a deeply held belief?

"How'd Romney poll in 2006? "

Has nothing to do with my contentions.

Actually, it has everything to do with your contentions, since they're the exact same situation you are trying to analyze now. Did Republicans vote their "deeply held beliefs" in 2012?

So, are you doing polling for Clinton or something? 'Cause analysis like this could explain her utterly dumb "I'm still inevitable" campaign in 2008.
Rand Paul, Sir, Will Not Even Get The Republican Nomination, Let Alone Win The General Election The Magistrate Aug 2014 #1
indeed. Has this utter disdain for HRC blinded some on DU to electoral reality? wyldwolf Aug 2014 #33
Yeah shenmue Aug 2014 #73
The MSM liberalmike27 Aug 2014 #76
And some have sacrificed their principles to back a presumed winner. rhett o rick Aug 2014 #115
I'm thinking: Maybe "principles" were never real enough to sacrifice to begin with... 2banon Aug 2014 #164
What get me is the sure audacity of thumbing noses at the plight of the lower classes rhett o rick Aug 2014 #185
He still has not taken his running shoes off when confronted with the question.. busterbrown Aug 2014 #94
None of Rand Paul's stands will prevent him from winning the Republican JDPriestly Aug 2014 #121
Paul will collapse under national scrutiny, as did Bachmann, Palin, etc etc. emulatorloo Aug 2014 #133
I haved constantly disagreed with "Jeb has no chance." RoverSuswade Aug 2014 #135
All your points are well thought out and I agree.. busterbrown Aug 2014 #158
You are right about Rand Paul in this regard (as well as with regard to other things): JDPriestly Aug 2014 #175
We are in agreement practically about everything... busterbrown Aug 2014 #195
Yes, they will (re: Rand Paul stances preventing him from winning the GOP nomination) stevenleser Aug 2014 #173
And Hillary's nomination could rip our party in two, if not in 2016, in 2020. JDPriestly Aug 2014 #184
Nope, it won't. No data suggests such a thing. nt stevenleser Aug 2014 #189
Great point. A H. Clinton-Sachs win will solidify the Conservative takeover of our Party. rhett o rick Aug 2014 #190
+1 woo me with science Aug 2014 #252
That's what they said about the 2008 primary. joshcryer Aug 2014 #260
Then you agree that Hillary should have challengers. JDPriestly Aug 2014 #273
Absolutely. joshcryer Aug 2014 #285
My first memory of a Democratic Convention was 1952 --I was nine. JDPriestly Aug 2014 #286
Obama is the most bipartisan President in history. joshcryer Aug 2014 #288
Good points. But partisanship just for the sake of partisanship does not get things JDPriestly Aug 2014 #289
I don't think he will JustAnotherGen Aug 2014 #287
Agreed Gothmog Aug 2014 #99
Agreed. And Hillary Clinton is not inevitable. EEO Aug 2014 #111
The only thing inevitable about Hillary is that she will do Wall Street's bidding. InAbLuEsTaTe Aug 2014 #253
Thread should end there. JoePhilly Aug 2014 #177
Sadly typical. We must end the discussion because we don't have any good reasons rhett o rick Aug 2014 #187
Who in their right mind would ever support someone who made such a boneheaded decision to support the invasion of Iraq? InAbLuEsTaTe Aug 2014 #254
In your opinion, who will get the Repub nomination? Don't leave us in suspenders. nm rhett o rick Aug 2014 #182
What this guy.. such a charmer.. and oh yeah a Liar Cha Aug 2014 #214
Very true. 3rdwaydem Aug 2014 #277
If I wanted to read that much, I'd go to school NightWatcher Aug 2014 #2
Never underrestimate the body politic in America. TM99 Aug 2014 #17
I, too, found this a good read ... 1StrongBlackMan Aug 2014 #68
But it does seem that part of the Democratic base pscot Aug 2014 #119
I'm not sure what point you're arguing 2banon Aug 2014 #132
I am saying ... 1StrongBlackMan Aug 2014 #140
ok. I think I understand you clearly now. 2banon Aug 2014 #168
Close ... 1StrongBlackMan Aug 2014 #188
Women and minorities can't afford more corporatism. woo me with science Aug 2014 #205
Well Said, woo! 2banon Aug 2014 #208
Actually, ... 1StrongBlackMan Aug 2014 #229
EXACTLY!! Get out of my head. I literally just posted the same point. Liberal_Stalwart71 Aug 2014 #236
"not that that is any of your concern" woo me with science Aug 2014 #237
Well, that not really true ... 1StrongBlackMan Aug 2014 #245
Unless you're part of the 1%, it's YOUR STRUGGLE TOO. It's both RACE AND CLASS Struggle together 2banon Aug 2014 #248
Well, honestly ... 1StrongBlackMan Aug 2014 #250
The Privileged Class does have it's perks, now don't it? 2banon Aug 2014 #255
I make no apology for ... 1StrongBlackMan Aug 2014 #261
I think a more accurate and useful way to conceptualize the situation woo me with science Aug 2014 #269
Apologies not expected nor requested 2banon Aug 2014 #270
And you have a vested interest in maintaining the racial status quo; ... 1StrongBlackMan Aug 2014 #271
I do not ignore nor deflate dynamics at play on matters of Race and Class 2banon Aug 2014 #274
Mischaracterizing what you are being told does not help your argument. woo me with science Aug 2014 #275
Yes, this exactly.. 2banon Aug 2014 #276
This response is to you, Woo and 2Bannon ... 1StrongBlackMan Aug 2014 #283
OH, please! Don't lecture us. We know where we are, were, and will always be. You see, we never Liberal_Stalwart71 Aug 2014 #234
I see.. 2banon Aug 2014 #206
Very well said. I've noticed that tactic in the pro-corporate posting: woo me with science Aug 2014 #241
Thank you for adding more clarity... you're exactly spot on. 2banon Aug 2014 #247
So what are the important issues? Savannahmann Aug 2014 #218
Great post. woo me with science Aug 2014 #281
When Sarah Palin defeated Obama, I was incredulous emulatorloo Aug 2014 #98
You're not alone. hifiguy Aug 2014 #123
a dry drunk who destroyed every business he touched AlbertCat Aug 2014 #126
Bush was close enough in votes for hanging chads to matter. TM99 Aug 2014 #142
Saddest about Bush is yeoman6987 Aug 2014 #145
Yuppers and that is why I do not TM99 Aug 2014 #160
The Powers That Be ran a representative of the statis quo Democrats against rhett o rick Aug 2014 #192
And the media does not deal in complexities. It deals in simplicity. AlbertCat Aug 2014 #146
It fits the mold. TM99 Aug 2014 #161
I agree with most of your analysis 2banon Aug 2014 #171
I went to school and I still don't want to read that much still_one Aug 2014 #26
Current polling says otherwise...by a longshot. JaneyVee Aug 2014 #3
The way some anti-Clinton folks heap praise upon Paul, they probably hope you're right. conservaphobe Aug 2014 #4
Interesting viewpoint from a Kossack: JaydenD Aug 2014 #11
I think you are confused. OilemFirchen Aug 2014 #16
Its you who are. Obama was the underdog, Clinton was the overdog. JaydenD Aug 2014 #20
Obama is The Annointed One? That sounds like racist dribble that right wingnuts said about him... Liberal_Stalwart71 Aug 2014 #67
"they DID say that about him!" Veilex Aug 2014 #109
Nuh-uh. OilemFirchen Aug 2014 #141
Your "lazy logic". First you say, "nuh-huh, that didn't happen". Then, you say... Liberal_Stalwart71 Aug 2014 #225
You've seen the light! OilemFirchen Aug 2014 #227
Ummm. Candidate Obama was NEVER the "Anointed One"... Veilex Aug 2014 #108
I see. OilemFirchen Aug 2014 #122
I have seen the light! Veilex Aug 2014 #137
I see. OilemFirchen Aug 2014 #139
"Internet rulez, courtesy of Vellex." Veilex Aug 2014 #149
I believe I did. OilemFirchen Aug 2014 #152
So, since a single paper out of the UK has the words Veilex Aug 2014 #210
'Looks' is the key word. conservaphobe Aug 2014 #30
Can't disagree with what you said there. JaydenD Aug 2014 #40
Wow... you must really despise Hillary. DCBob Aug 2014 #170
Except the Kossack's viewpoint isn't grounded in reality. wyldwolf Aug 2014 #35
People mistake their opinions for facts and statistical analysis of the voters. stevenleser Aug 2014 #41
and that really is a hallmark of far left and far right thinking wyldwolf Aug 2014 #54
DU is as much a hall of mirrors as Free Republic or any other wingnut forum emulatorloo Aug 2014 #80
President Kucinich begs to differ. (n/t) OilemFirchen Aug 2014 #134
There's nothing wrong with that train of thought..... daleanime Aug 2014 #84
There is a LOT wrong with it. Opinions do not carry the weight of facts or statistical analysis. stevenleser Aug 2014 #110
A tool is only worth what it's used for.... daleanime Aug 2014 #147
That does not apply to this situation. The OP presented his opinions as fact. stevenleser Aug 2014 #153
Then we're not too far apart.... daleanime Aug 2014 #155
Opinions change, and Polls turn out to be Fantasy Demeter Aug 2014 #101
Deeply held beliefs do not change in two years. Polls are never fantasy. They are either stevenleser Aug 2014 #107
"People mistake their opinions for facts and statistical analysis of the voters" Veilex Aug 2014 #116
No, no, and no. stevenleser Aug 2014 #143
Embarrassing is pretending that those polls are meaningful. jeff47 Aug 2014 #166
Those polls and studies are meaningful for a number of reasons. stevenleser Aug 2014 #169
I love how you utterly ignored 2006's massive errors jeff47 Aug 2014 #176
I am doing nothing of the sort. You are wrong on every point. stevenleser Aug 2014 #179
Really? I'm so wrong you completely changed the subject? jeff47 Aug 2014 #183
I didn't change the subject. The entire OP is about Rand Paul vs Hillary. You changed the subject. stevenleser Aug 2014 #191
And you have never typed the word "Romney" because...... jeff47 Aug 2014 #194
Romney has nothing to do with whether Rand is electable. Again, Romney is part of your strawman. stevenleser Aug 2014 #196
Romney is an example of your analysis utterly failing. jeff47 Aug 2014 #199
No, it's not, because I am talking about something completely different than your straw man. stevenleser Aug 2014 #200
Then feel free to actually explain how Romney and McCain don't fit. jeff47 Aug 2014 #202
Yep! Looks like it did in 2006 and 2007 when Hillary the Inevitable, the Annointed One, Liberal_Stalwart71 Aug 2014 #238
Since Hillary has decided to publicly speak, those numbers have plummeted. JaydenD Aug 2014 #48
oh, yeah, a wild 4 - 5 point swing in a +/- 4% error sample. All it takes is 50% + 1 wyldwolf Aug 2014 #53
At this early stage, those numbers are quite significant. JaydenD Aug 2014 #60
not significant at all. Typical for a politician. wyldwolf Aug 2014 #62
We will see, won't we. JaydenD Aug 2014 #72
According to you. Not according to professionals like Nate Silver who accurately predict elections. stevenleser Aug 2014 #64
No, they haven't. Nate Silver just spoke directly to those assertions. stevenleser Aug 2014 #55
"...he looks more progressive on some current issues..." DonViejo Aug 2014 #36
I see it as calling it shameful toward Hillary rather than praise toward Paul. JaydenD Aug 2014 #51
The word "progressive" should never be used to describe Rand Paul. nt SunSeeker Aug 2014 #117
but yet some of his ideas are more progressive than Hillary's - on matters of war, for example. JaydenD Aug 2014 #136
No, they are not "progressive," they all stem from his anti-government views. SunSeeker Aug 2014 #144
Okay, I see your point. I don't intend to give Paul any honor. JaydenD Aug 2014 #148
That depends on how deeply you analyze his beliefs. The 'whys' matter. stevenleser Aug 2014 #150
He's actually not an isolationist. OilemFirchen Aug 2014 #154
Interesting post: Jamaal510 Aug 2014 #165
this is the most important subthread I've seen in a while. wyldwolf Aug 2014 #172
You suggest nominating Bernie Sanders? oberliner Aug 2014 #5
Actually I think the George McGovern defeat was pretty bad. Ironically, McGovern would have been a still_one Aug 2014 #28
That was before Mondale oberliner Aug 2014 #31
I agree still_one Aug 2014 #58
You know what Joe Turner Aug 2014 #212
That seems pretty defeatist oberliner Aug 2014 #223
I think you're right. woo me with science Aug 2014 #6
And....to those who claim so confidently that Rand Paul would never even get out of a primary... woo me with science Aug 2014 #18
This message was self-deleted by its author woo me with science Aug 2014 #59
Paul will implode in national spotlight, as Sharon Angle, "I am not a witch," Sarah Palin, etc. emulatorloo Aug 2014 #87
Exactly what people said about that idiot from Texas in 1998. jeff47 Aug 2014 #167
Rand is a "true-believer" who cannot STFU. Shrub was a suit who did what he was told emulatorloo Aug 2014 #201
Which is why he still goes on Maddow. jeff47 Aug 2014 #203
It is interesting, isn't it? 2banon Aug 2014 #278
+1 ...dayaaaammmmmnnnn spot on. n/t L0oniX Aug 2014 #71
Love to read your posts! +1000000000 Phlem Aug 2014 #127
Jeez, yes.. This is exactly what's happening.. 2banon Aug 2014 #279
I have as much chance as being the 45th president as Rand Paul/nt DemocratSinceBirth Aug 2014 #7
I don't knowbout that ... 1StrongBlackMan Aug 2014 #82
Progressives are going to vote for a man who said he would have opposed the Civil Rights Act of 1964 DemocratSinceBirth Aug 2014 #106
Please listen more closely to what the DU "progressives" ... 1StrongBlackMan Aug 2014 #120
Take out the high falluting language DemocratSinceBirth Aug 2014 #124
I don't see paul winning, either ... 1StrongBlackMan Aug 2014 #130
You're making an argument for Democratic Party to take Anti-War and Anti-Wall Street positions 2banon Aug 2014 #181
That's my point ... 1StrongBlackMan Aug 2014 #186
It seems that way at times.. 2banon Aug 2014 #193
My I ask what youdo for a living ... 1StrongBlackMan Aug 2014 #217
Well.. now I'm on SSA.. 2banon Aug 2014 #230
While it is true ... 1StrongBlackMan Aug 2014 #231
HRC 2banon Aug 2014 #235
And here's the sticking point ... 1StrongBlackMan Aug 2014 #244
By today's Political Class Standards, I agree. 2banon Aug 2014 #257
We are talking two different status quos ... 1StrongBlackMan Aug 2014 #258
Socio-economics Brother, Socio-economics. n/t 2banon Aug 2014 #259
Are two different interests, Brother. Two different interests. n/t 1StrongBlackMan Aug 2014 #262
Sister to you please. No, they're connected. it's all connected. peel off that onion. 2banon Aug 2014 #264
Sorry ... 1StrongBlackMan Aug 2014 #265
No Sir, that's quite incorrect. 2banon Aug 2014 #267
Okay, I see our disconnect ... 1StrongBlackMan Aug 2014 #268
Socioeconomic, Racial and Gender Equality 2banon Aug 2014 #272
Hillary's theme will be "spreading American values" CJCRANE Aug 2014 #8
Like "hard working white people" values? Those values? Liberal_Stalwart71 Aug 2014 #69
Yeah... Jester Messiah Aug 2014 #105
Priceless: Rand running away from a Dreamer. n/t UTUSN Aug 2014 #9
Unrec, except for the LOLs. FSogol Aug 2014 #10
The thread is being very rapidly swarmed by the resident Third Way crew. woo me with science Aug 2014 #12
to counteract the absurd far left crew wyldwolf Aug 2014 #38
LOL. If it's so absurd, why swarm it? woo me with science Aug 2014 #42
no swarming. This is a discussion forum. If you want a place where only your opinion is allowed... wyldwolf Aug 2014 #57
+1. eom. 1StrongBlackMan Aug 2014 #86
Oh come on now ...just as we are all warming up to the third way corporatist war hawks. L0oniX Aug 2014 #61
LOL! woo me with science Aug 2014 #70
Lol at "far left" ForgoTheConsequence Aug 2014 #128
^^^^This^^^ +1000 2banon Aug 2014 #233
They definitely hate the left more than they hate republicans. ForgoTheConsequence Aug 2014 #242
Apolitical left. joshcryer Aug 2014 #198
oxymoron, there's no such thing. 2banon Aug 2014 #280
Not since Snowden and Greenwald evoked the swarm effect carolinayellowdog Aug 2014 #224
DU political prognostications always tickle me./NT DemocratSinceBirth Aug 2014 #13
I agree ... 1StrongBlackMan Aug 2014 #89
Maybe Paul Ryan but not Rand flamingdem Aug 2014 #14
I cannot find anything in your essay that I disagree with, Savannahman. Nay Aug 2014 #15
Either way, we're screwed. smirkymonkey Aug 2014 #22
You and OP must have skipped out on politics 101. First, ensure you have support of your base. stevenleser Aug 2014 #25
See post 18. woo me with science Aug 2014 #27
Right and wrong are soooo old school. Winning is all. L0oniX Aug 2014 #34
In politics ... 1StrongBlackMan Aug 2014 #102
And another significant segment of the gop base ... 1StrongBlackMan Aug 2014 #100
Good point. They won't say anything, they just won't donate money or set up PACs and that is a big stevenleser Aug 2014 #174
I think Hillary really does want more war. magical thyme Aug 2014 #159
Rand PAul will never get past the Baggers in the primaries. MohRokTah Aug 2014 #19
All other analysis of the subject says otherwise. Rand would alienate 30-40% of the GOP base stevenleser Aug 2014 #21
Would those be the same political professionals who.. Savannahmann Aug 2014 #44
You are mixing apples and oranges and hoping it supports you. It doesn't. stevenleser Aug 2014 #47
+1 "...the rest of us can look out and see what is really happening..." woo me with science Aug 2014 #63
Can't wait until he allows businesses to discriminate based on race, can you? emulatorloo Aug 2014 #90
I just can't wait to see the status of women and minorities in this country woo me with science Aug 2014 #197
Rand Paul? President? LOL. XRubicon Aug 2014 #23
Rand Paul is a lightweight. I have no idea why anyone thinks he will be President. TwilightGardener Aug 2014 #24
Who do you see getting the Republican nomination? oberliner Aug 2014 #29
They all lack gravitas. Gawd, I hate that word but it's true DemocratSinceBirth Aug 2014 #32
Indicting Perry sure didn't add any "gravitas" to the status quo neocon crowd. woo me with science Aug 2014 #37
I really don't know. Probably Jeb. It was supposed to be Christie, but TwilightGardener Aug 2014 #45
I should also add, I think Paul Ryan will run and is less of a lightweight than Rand Paul. TwilightGardener Aug 2014 #75
Jeb Bush. The moneyed powers-that-be want him in the White House. eom BlueCaliDem Aug 2014 #49
Reagan was a joke, too, and look what happened there. nt Nay Aug 2014 #81
LOL--and I'm still not over the absurd notion of GWB as President. TwilightGardener Aug 2014 #113
Absurd. DCBob Aug 2014 #39
I'm glad I read through all the comments, MoonchildCA Aug 2014 #138
you raise some good points, more likely Bush versus Clinton, as the elite battle it out whereisjustice Aug 2014 #43
I have always maintained that in 2016 it would be Bush vs. Clinton. Nay Aug 2014 #178
besides money polluting politics, congress is basically same size as 1914 in spite of fact that whereisjustice Aug 2014 #209
Rush Limbaugh stands with Rand Paul woo me with science Aug 2014 #46
"lends weight" plus Rush = LOL XRubicon Aug 2014 #50
Okay, buster... you and your coffee and donuts JaydenD Aug 2014 #256
Any ideas and principals from the opposition are automatically bad. Right? L0oniX Aug 2014 #52
A principled principal! OilemFirchen Aug 2014 #129
lol Bobbie Jo Aug 2014 #266
No ... 1StrongBlackMan Aug 2014 #56
a VERY important point! n/t wyldwolf Aug 2014 #66
Actually, I never said I was voting for him. Savannahmann Aug 2014 #74
+1000 heaven05 Aug 2014 #77
His trip to do surgery on poor blind people in Nicaragua is his campaign in action and idiots Autumn Aug 2014 #65
Oh my sides....PULEASE Stop! I can't take it.... VanillaRhapsody Aug 2014 #78
Fingers crossed! Metric System Aug 2014 #79
Nice try! But no cigar. BlueMTexpat Aug 2014 #83
It seems that overlooking Paul sadoldgirl Aug 2014 #85
Watching the tape of him weasel out of those questions by that woman in the resaurant was..... wolfie001 Aug 2014 #88
Lots of people here would cut off their noses to spite their faces emulatorloo Aug 2014 #91
Are you Libertarian or Democrat? Thinkingabout Aug 2014 #92
From your lips to God's Ear Demeter Aug 2014 #93
I'm still hoping there is a serious challenge to 'inevitable' Hillary Dems to Win Aug 2014 #95
No it won't amuse bouche Aug 2014 #96
Rick Perry was never the presumptive nominee of the GOP Gothmog Aug 2014 #97
Message auto-removed Name removed Aug 2014 #103
I disagree to some degree. indivisibleman Aug 2014 #104
I like Sanders as a Dem with Grayson as VP but I seem to be 1 of 2 here. rickyhall Aug 2014 #112
Suppose she's looking for a different effect? loyalsister Aug 2014 #114
Why not Eric Holder? Someone must have asked "why not Obama" about this time, 2006. Fred Sanders Aug 2014 #118
I hate News of the future AlbertCat Aug 2014 #125
I have a SERIOUS fear MoleyRusselsWart Aug 2014 #131
Very good post.... AlbertCat Aug 2014 #151
Ha, duly noted MoleyRusselsWart Aug 2014 #156
I know... AlbertCat Aug 2014 #162
Yup, 5 week old son in MoleyRusselsWart Aug 2014 #163
A President Rand Paul sounds scary. Louisiana1976 Aug 2014 #157
I don't think HRC can lose voters to the GOP Proud Public Servant Aug 2014 #180
Nah. Rand Paul looks like a muppet. jobycom Aug 2014 #204
I prefer Warren or Sanders but nominating Hillary will not lead to Paul or the Apocolypse pampango Aug 2014 #207
"Either way, the Base of the Democratic Party will find themselves agreeing with Paul ..." Scuba Aug 2014 #211
The base of the Democratic Party includes black folk. Black folk are not persuaded Liberal_Stalwart71 Aug 2014 #239
This is just not based in reality. DemocraticWing Aug 2014 #213
Hate To Say It But If Hillary Doesn't Clean Up Her Act...It's Rand Paul As Our Next President iloveObama12 Aug 2014 #215
Horse manure - such drama. Gman Aug 2014 #216
UNREC brooklynite Aug 2014 #219
Pretty Much Nonsense. MineralMan Aug 2014 #220
Oh, I wouldn't be so sure about that. Iggo Aug 2014 #221
If half the electorate wasn't nuts, I'd say you were off your rocker. Vinca Aug 2014 #222
Not that it would have dissuaded any of those Erich Bloodaxe BSN Aug 2014 #226
DU Rec. SixString Aug 2014 #228
He definitely is framing the issues that we should be out ahead of. Puzzledtraveller Aug 2014 #232
You said: Either way, the Base of the Democratic Party will find themselves agreeing with Paul Liberal_Stalwart71 Aug 2014 #240
The problem is that nobody is making sense on many issues. Savannahmann Aug 2014 #246
Excuse me. I didn't assert that black voters are the only Democratic voters. Liberal_Stalwart71 Aug 2014 #249
Let me begin by apologizing. Savannahmann Aug 2014 #251
+1 eom 1StrongBlackMan Aug 2014 #284
Dream on. Ted "I fucked up the country" Cruz has a better chance! Rex Aug 2014 #243
Message auto-removed Name removed Aug 2014 #263
The key question for the GOP is "Whose turn is it?" Wella Aug 2014 #282
For the last time Blue_Tires Aug 2014 #290
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