Lets look at this from above:
1. One part of the population considers itself more "central European"...siding with Poland, Germany, etc. The other part, Slavic..siding with Russia.
2. Ukraine was part of the Russian Empire (due to conquests that predate the USA)...had the Bolshevik Revolution not occurred and the provisional government under Kerensky endured till the end of World War 1...Ukraine would still be part of Russia.
3. Ukraine became a nation briefly after WW1....then absorbed when Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia allied.
4. After World War 2, even though many nations fell under the Iron Curtain....they were considered their own nation. Ukraine was not. Ukraine was recognized as part of Soviet Russia.
5. Ukraine seceded from Russia (During the Soviet Union collapse...and Russia being run by a drunkard named Yeltsin)...as the Soviet Constitution allowed it to do so...albeit it was tongue and cheek. There merely for the appearances of propaganda of a "benefactor" country. There was never any intention of letting Ukraine out of Russia's control.
6. The US saw an opportunity to permanently weaken Russia by yanking the republics away from Moscow's influence...and Moscow in its upheaval...was powerless.
7. NATO didn't dissolve. This is important because....
8. Russia has historically been attacked from the West....its a paranoia..but sadly...not a paranoia unfounded....but....
9. Russia views itself as "The Savior of Europe". That being, the ones responsible for Napoleon Bonaparte and Adolf Hitler's fall. And probably see NATO (an organization run by "America"
as a threat.
10. Russia doesn't want all of Ukraine (just the parts they can control and will be of economic benefit)...Europe doesn't give a rats ass about Ukraine, its long been a subjugated territory...The US want's all of Ukraine to economically stunt Russia when it needs to.
11. Ukraine doesn't know its identity...how could it, has not been a nation in the last 500 years to gain one. Its culture is either Russian or Central European.
12. The easiest way to solve this...would be to federalize Ukraine like Finland. Only...one problem...
13. They have energy deposits. To quote the movie Dune (haven't read the book...yet): "He who controls the spice controls the Universe!". In this case, he who controls the energy is the big dog in Europe. If Ukraine didn't have energy deposits...Putin could walk into Kiev and say "you now belong to Russia again" and no one outside of Ukraine would blink an eye. Shoot...they would probably tell Ukraine "it was probably the best for them".
14. Obama's foreign policy has been unraveling (don't know if its because of Bush appointee's or just incompetence..but favoring the former rather than the later). ISIS in Syria and Iraq, no State of Palestine, Libya...unknown, Egypt for good or worse, back under control of the Military, Afghanistan...unknown, Syria...devil you know...or the devil you don't know, etc. I'd bet the farm, that he has adviser's telling him that he needs a foreign policy victory....while he has the attitude "such victories come to bite us in the ass later".
Just too many players and too much politics at this issue.
Me personally...go with the federalization plan...any other way causes a greater loss of life.
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