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The Traveler

(5,632 posts)
30. This is a bilateral screwup
Fri Sep 5, 2014, 05:51 PM
Sep 2014

The entire situation originated from an attempt by the EU to draw the Ukraine into its economic sphere of power (complete with bailout loans and austerity programs), and Russia's attempt to offer a much sweeter counter deal. The government of th4e Ukraine went with the counter deal ... it would have been financially irresponsible to make another choice.

But that decision met with the intense disapproval of a large chunk of the Ukrainian people ... who took to the streets (apparently with at least some EU support) and toppled the government (which was, let's face it, both corrupt and barely competent).

Now Russia had long broadcasted that they would at some point react to encroachment in its direction by the EU and/or NATO. So I was not surprised when they began supporting a counter coup insurgency. Nor was I surprised that they jumped Crimea, given its strategic importance to them. What amazed me was the utter lack of preparedness by the EU and NATO for these moves. It was as if they believed it inconceivable. I thought it was inevitable.

Everything was going their way until an airliner got shot down. Both sides accuse the other of doing the deed. I am concerned that there has been a shortage of conclusive evidence either way ... though we have been told such evidence exists. Recently, Putin challenged the West to release the cockpit voice recordings ... one wonders why that has not been done, and why other evidential disclosures have not been made. Let us as citizens beware the fog of war ... both sides of the issue are blowing lots of smoke right now.

In any event, the loss of the airliner finally prompted the governments of Europe to actually get off their butts and join with our President in formulating sanctions and other plans of action. If the Russians did not expect a NATO reaction of this sort, then they are as incompetent and/or arrogant as the EU planners.

NATO has no choice but to position itself to repel further incursions, and prepare military options for dealing with the situation. The cease fire agreement, which resolves none of the political matters, is a responsible action by both sides. It slows down the rush towards war. Neither side really wants an engagement between main NATO and Russian forces, with its potential for rapid escalation into an exchange of battlefield tactical nukes ... and thus the risk of broader escalation.

More significantly, as observed by no less than Henry Kissinger, this presents a crisis to the "New World Order" constructed after the Cold War. I agree, and further hold it was inevitable.

The neo-cons proclaimed "an end to history" ... the supreme triumph of capitalism. Well, the supreme triumph has produced multiple conflicts, ethnic cleansing, imposition of brutal economic policies, and massive wealth inequality in the nations of the West ... it wasn't all it could have been, shall we say. And it's excesses have produced consequences. New alliances are forming to oppose that western consensus ... and along with them, the beginnings of separate financial systems.

What happens next? I have no idea. I just hope everyone keeps their cool ... in a very real sense, we are back in cold war conditions, but without the training for and experience of that kind of world.


To Be Blunt, Sir The Magistrate Sep 2014 #1
^ That ^ -eom gcomeau Sep 2014 #2
Several thousand huh? JEB Sep 2014 #3
And You Are About To Claim What, Sir --- Zero? The Magistrate Sep 2014 #5
And you are about to bite into the neck of the world and drink her blood? JEB Sep 2014 #8
Thank You For The Laugh, Sir The Magistrate Sep 2014 #11
Indeed, even CNN lets a little Ukraine truth show. JEB Sep 2014 #38
did Russia blockade the Ukrainian naval vessels Duckhunter935 Sep 2014 #26
Putin is a jerk and a jackass AnalystInParadise Sep 2014 #37
Thanks for the intersting perspective on your experience with NATO davidpdx Sep 2014 #39
Wonderfully said! karynnj Sep 2014 #10
And, our "vital national interests" in Ukraine are.......? Tierra_y_Libertad Sep 2014 #4
Do you really think Putin will stop with Ukraine? Drale Sep 2014 #6
I've seen enough fear mongering in this country. JEB Sep 2014 #7
And, our "vital national interests" in Ukraine are.......? Tierra_y_Libertad Sep 2014 #9
If you would say the same of Russia, your comments would have more weight nt karynnj Sep 2014 #13
I do say the same of Russia. Tierra_y_Libertad Sep 2014 #14
...to appear relevant leftstreet Sep 2014 #15
It's a pissing contest that we just can't resist participating in. Tierra_y_Libertad Sep 2014 #16
Oh please leftstreet Sep 2014 #12
Ridiculous MohRokTah Sep 2014 #18
He's been in office essentially 14 years leftstreet Sep 2014 #19
Oh please. NuclearDem Sep 2014 #20
The Duma passed laws concerning LGBT rights leftstreet Sep 2014 #22
Yeah. Alexander Litivenko. NuclearDem Sep 2014 #23
People Really Do Need To Inform Themselves Better, Sir The Magistrate Sep 2014 #25
Don't you love that some here defend Putin more than they ever defended Obama? Drunken Irishman Sep 2014 #28
I Do Indeed, Sir The Magistrate Sep 2014 #29
Sir....I don't want to ask...but, what were YOU reading 40 years ago.... KoKo Sep 2014 #33
The CPUSA Paper, Ma'am The Magistrate Sep 2014 #36
"Putin is a businessman. Period" LOL! EX500rider Sep 2014 #24
Putin is absolutely no "businessman". You apparently know nothing about him. Russian Oligarchs KittyWampus Sep 2014 #42
Thank you for making my point leftstreet Sep 2014 #43
They kind of asked for it. n/t Crunchy Frog Sep 2014 #17
Russia needs to be poked with a stick when it keeps on trying to geek tragedy Sep 2014 #21
This isn't poking Russia with a stick. BillZBubb Sep 2014 #27
This is a bilateral screwup The Traveler Sep 2014 #30
Thanks for the thoughtful and informed post. JEB Sep 2014 #32
Good Points....explains much without rancor, name calling or rush to judgement. K&R! KoKo Sep 2014 #34
Perhaps the stick will wake up the Russian people... Historic NY Sep 2014 #31
That's Twisted .. Fucking Putin has been poking his "stick" all over the bloody place and no one Cha Sep 2014 #35
I just have to wonder what else Putin likes to poke his "stick" at davidpdx Sep 2014 #41
IF this is "Poking Russia with a Stick", then Russia bashed NATO upside the head with a tree. eom MohRokTah Sep 2014 #40
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