So...Santorum's out, Romney's in. And his running mate will be...? (Official Speculation Thread?)

[Lizzie Poppet]

36. I think they'll throw a bone to the far right.

It's more important to Rmoney to try and retain as much of the currently-fleeing far right bloc as he possibly can. Not only to try and offset the gender gap, but to prevent that bloc from jumping behind a third party candidate capable of garnering significant numbers. The GOP has been on the receiving end of benefits from a "Nader scenario," and they'll know it's critical to avoid that sort of occurrence.

Of course, that would mean pretty much accepting the gender gap. It would mean pretty much conceding the larger portion of uncommitted independent moderates. They'd be betting the farm on retaining a constituency that is furious over the choice of candidates.

But they may have no choice. Trying to beat Obama in the middle is very probably a losing fight even if the threat of a far-right third party candidate never materializes. For the same reasons Obama has been something of a disappointment to many progressives, he retains appeal to moderates. Unless our national slide into economic oblivion becomes even steeper, he's going to win that constituency.

The alternate scenario would be that the GOP assumes that enough voters on the far right will hold their nose and vote for "anybody but Obama." That assumption would free them to nominate a female moderate-to-conservative... which might make for a close race, if the above assumption about far right voters is correct. A huge risk...

Another factor: they desperately need someone more mediagenic than their nominee. Mittens is just not able to come across as likable...or as all that competent, really. His image presentation is at odds with his political positioning - that is, he has that vintage "old people's idea of a (white) statesman/newscaster/car salesman" thing going on. That scrams "right wing conservative," but his political image has been carefully depicted as moderate. There's a disconnect, and coupled with his poker-up-the-ass stiffness, he's just not great on camera. He needs a charismatic running mate...but "charismatic Republican" is damned near an oxymoron.