So if we pulled out of the Middle East, what would the probabilities be? [View all]

[Uncle Joe]

Last edited Sat Sep 13, 2014, 04:03 AM - Edit history (1)

Would IS, ISIL, ISIS regain their military advantage?

I believe the answer to that is yes.

What does that mean?

1. They put the Kurds back on the defensive, perhaps conquering their region and either converting or killing them.

2. The U.S. Would lose influence in getting the new Iraqi Government to moderate their policies and become more inclusive of the Sunnis, thus there would be less motivation for moderate Sunnis to splinter away from the radical hardliners.

3. The Saudis and perhaps other Gulf States would be even less inclined to stop funding of IS, ISIL, ISIS and war between them and the Iraqi Shia dominated government would greatly escalate.

4. With Gulf State wealth behind them and no American Air power as a deterrence, the Shia dominated Iraqi Government would call on Iran for military help, with no U.S. presence, Iran would feel free to send troops en-masse.

5. The Gulf States feeling threatened by Iranian gains would send their own armed forces in to the fray.

6. It's probable that Syria; a friend of Iran and Russia would be in even more trouble as well, it's probable that Iran would send resources to and influence sympathetic Hezbollah troops in Lebanon drawing them in to the war as well.

7. There would be mass economic upheaval both here and abroad as the flow of oil would be greatly disrupted, while I'm not a fan of fossil fuels, I recognize that most of the world's present day economies are greatly dependent on it.

8. I believe there are other probable long term negative effects but I can't see them just yet.

I don't have a crystal ball but these seem like logical scenarios to me should the U.S. leave a power vacuum.

There really isn't any good solution to this mess but at this time I believe President Obama is pursuing the best course of action in a bad situation.