So if we pulled out of the Middle East, what would the probabilities be?

[cali]

13. Why is is so either/or in your scenario?

What if the U.S. continued providing arms and funds to the Peshmerga? How about vigorously pursuing cutting off the trade routes to Turkey from the 4-5 oilfields that ISIS controls, thust severely cutting into their revenue stream?

A couple of other things: The new Iraqi government is essentially the old Iraqi government. Sunnis in Iraq fear and hate the government more than ISIS- and the government has killed more of them.

in any case, I think your scenario is farfetched and dire. What we know from recent history is that actions such as those proposed by the administration have led to great bloodshed, wide antipathy toward the U.S. and massive instability. How about instead of broad bombing we spend that money on the 3 million Syrian refugees (and Iraqi refugees) living in horrendous circumstances?