So if we pulled out of the Middle East, what would the probabilities be?

[quakerboy]

15. It seems pretty simple

Either the powers in the region would get their shit together and solve the issue themselves, or the whole area would devolve into a wasteland. Or maybe Europe or an Asian power would step in.

Turkey is right there, for instance. They have a vested interest in not seeing it spread too far, but no incentive to intervene unless there is no other option. The Gulf states seem to like this conflict, as long as we are there to see it not spread. Its a pressure valve for them, they get to dump their malcontents, and we take all the downside. They don't want revolution in their own countries, though, I assure you. If we backed completely out, I rather expect the flow of money from the oil states to the terrorist groups would dry up toot sweet, and there would be a run on hiring mercenaries.

China and Russia both have interests to protect. But why should they bother to use their resources for it, as long as we are there taking the rap for everything that goes wrong? They need that middle east crude more than we do, I suspect. Last I heard there was only a fairly minimal amount that makes its way to our shores.

My analysis says this is a domestic dispute, and should be resolved as such.

And if we are speculating about consequences, perhaps this sort of crisis is what we need to push us toward energy independence, to make use of the solar and wind that are available, to improve our tech and transportation, and to encourage us to conserve our native resources a bit more, while we look inward. Bush put us in a lose lose situation in Iraq. But given a lose lose, I'd rather be the country not now killing thousands of people than the country continually and forever killing thousands of people for some oil.