So if we pulled out of the Middle East, what would the probabilities be?

[Scootaloo]

56. More...

For however long that "ceasefire" lasts it doesn't change the major point of my OP that being of a much wider war taking place.

I believe the Kurds are able to hold their own, actually. The Syrian Kurds have done a good job of it - against IS, against Damascus, against their "fellow rebels" - with no outside backing (unless you count Turkish Kurds from the PKK, whose involvement discounts US aid going to the Syrian Kurds.) You said IS would overrun them. That's not going to happen.

Logic dictates we have some measure of influence so long as they believe we're defending them, they changed governments because of our strong recommendation, time will tell how much the new government is open to moderation and more inclusion of the Sunni Population.

They changed governments because the one they had was failing miserably. we were on board, but it was still the Iraqis' call. And the one they have now isn't particularly different, so it's not as if the US ushered in some sort of sea change with our thumbs-up endorsement. We have 'some influence," sure. This does not translate into any amount of control however - influence and control are very different things.

Oil is money and they can get plenty of weapons without us.

Yes, but right now they have oil money PLUS the weapons and money we give them as housewarming gifts. Take that away and htye have less.

I never stated that Shia dominated Iraq didn't have a right to ask allies for aid, I just said that they will and their closest ally is Iran. Furthermore, Iran in turn will send their army to assist Iraq in their struggle against IS.

You framed it as a bad thing, however.

As my previous two points make, Iraq will ask Iran for military help, Iran will send it, and oil is money the Gulf States can certainly buy, rent and/or develop a military if they felt threatened and with Shia Iran on their border I believe these Sunni dominated nations would feel threatened.

Wow. No, no you actually can't buy or rent a capable military. In fact, besides happiness, that's one of the few things money actually can't buy.

Know what the Saudi Arabian military's combat experience amounts to, Since the kingdom's foundation in 1919?
- Having a small army (~500 men) of irregulars armed with WW1 era arms get their butt kicked by Israel in 1948
- Fifty years of beating up civilians in Saudi Arabia
- Running away from Iraqis in 1991. Then flying sorties against Iraq, in which no bullets were fired, no missiles launched, no bombs dropped.
- twenty-three years of beating up civilians i nSaudi Arabia.

This is without considering the impact of a low population (Saudi Arabia has the same population as the state of Texas, 50% of whim can't go out in public, much less join the military) and the... eccentricities of the Saudi Military (like how only members of the royal family ever become fighter pilots... and don't receive training since implying they don't already know would shame them)

The UAE? Qatar? Kuwait? What, are these nations going to give their Filipino and Bangladeshi slave populations the keys to fighter jets and tanks?

No. of the "Sunni" states out there, only Egypt and Turkey have militaries worth mention. and neither one of them are likely to be involved in the scenario you outline.

This only makes the general premise of my OP all the more likely that absent the U.S. a much wider regional will probably take place, the U.S. has stated that Turkey is backing the Nusra Front aimed at overthrowing Assad and this war could spread into Lebanon itself.

Spreading the conflagration around is just as likely with US involvement... I nfact as i mentioned it actually looks like that may be the INTENT of American involvement. So it's not really saying much.

That sentence reminds me of what they said on both sides just before the Civil War, "it will be over in matter of days or weeks," that stretched into fours years with over six hundred thousand deaths, and countless wounded.

I imagine the confederate army could roll over the Saudi military in three days. And all the confederates have been dead for a hundred and fifty years.

My point is that these gulf states just don't have the power to actually engage in a toe to toe fight with anyone. They have shiny second-hand toys and lots of oil money, but that doesn't actually create ability, it doesn't fix dysfunction, it doesn't create soldiers out of thin air, and it sure as hell doesn't add experience or morale.

if you're worried about the Saudis and the gulf states mobilizing for war, well, you must not know much about them. They point their money at clandestine groups that operate to hinder or assassinate the people they dislike. Toe to toe fights are just outside their ability.