So if we pulled out of the Middle East, what would the probabilities be?

[Uncle Joe]

65. There is more.

I believe the Kurds are able to hold their own, actually. The Syrian Kurds have done a good job of it - against IS, against Damascus, against their "fellow rebels" - with no outside backing (unless you count Turkish Kurds from the PKK, whose involvement discounts US aid going to the Syrian Kurds.) You said IS would overrun them. That's not going to happen.

I said IS could (the entire OP being about probabilities) put them on the defensive and "perhaps" overrun them, IS did put them on the defensive until the U.S. started using its air campaign. Personally I admire or like the Kurds but Turkey has no love for them gaining too much power, neither does Iran.

They changed governments because the one they had was failing miserably. we were on board, but it was still the Iraqis' call. And the one they have now isn't particularly different, so it's not as if the US ushered in some sort of sea change with our thumbs-up endorsement. We have 'some influence," sure. This does not translate into any amount of control however - influence and control are very different things.

Iraq's government is already showing some early signs of attempting to moderate Sunni perceptions of it, you even posted on this thread. I don't believe Maliki would've been so concerned about civilian, mostly Sunni deaths from Iraqi artillery. I believe this to be a positive development.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014895329

Iraq PM Orders Halt To Shelling Of Civilian Areas

BAGHDAD (AP) -- Iraq's prime minister said Saturday he has ordered the army to stop shelling populated areas held by militants in order to spare the lives of "innocent victims" as the armed forces struggle to retake cities and towns seized by the Islamic State extremist group this summer.

"I issued this order two days ago because we do not want to see more innocent victims falling in the places and provinces controlled by Daesh," Haider al-Abadi told a news conference in Baghdad, referring to the Islamic State group by its Arabic acronym.

You framed it as a bad thing, however.

I framed it as a "bad thing" insofar as the Gulf States would be concerned, not to mention Turkey and Afghanistan which have majority Sunni populations.

Wow. No, no you actually can't buy or rent a capable military. In fact, besides happiness, that's one of the few things money actually can't buy.

Know what the Saudi Arabian military's combat experience amounts to, Since the kingdom's foundation in 1919?
- Having a small army (~500 men) of irregulars armed with WW1 era arms get their butt kicked by Israel in 1948
- Fifty years of beating up civilians in Saudi Arabia
- Running away from Iraqis in 1991. Then flying sorties against Iraq, in which no bullets were fired, no missiles launched, no bombs dropped.
- twenty-three years of beating up civilians i nSaudi Arabia.

This is without considering the impact of a low population (Saudi Arabia has the same population as the state of Texas, 50% of whim can't go out in public, much less join the military) and the... eccentricities of the Saudi Military (like how only members of the royal family ever become fighter pilots... and don't receive training since implying they don't already know would shame them)

The UAE? Qatar? Kuwait? What, are these nations going to give their Filipino and Bangladeshi slave populations the keys to fighter jets and tanks?

No. of the "Sunni" states out there, only Egypt and Turkey have militaries worth mention. and neither one of them are likely to be involved in the scenario you outline.

IS and the Sunnis in Iraq already have the makings of a "relatively" strong military, this began with the dismissal of the Iraqi Army under Cheney and Bush, and was further aggravated by the previous Iraqi government's treatment of Sunni veterans.

They have been combat tested in Syria and already captured a fair amount of arms, many of them American which were abandoned with virtually no resistance by the current Shia dominated Iraqi Army.

Turkey is already involved in supporting rebels in attempting to overthrow the Assad Government in Syria, (the U.S. mentions Al Nusra for one,) whether that particular point is true or not, Turkey is involved.

If Iran becomes too involved in the fray, many elements in Turkey and Afghanistan, as I mentioned above will also become tempted to respond, this has the makings of a full blown Shia/Sunni religious/civil war. The Gulf States can fund them if nothing else, not to mention sending at least some of their "shiny toys" in support. What we've being seeing for the past couple of decades has been the pre-game warm-up, should the U.S. pull out at this time and leave a major power vacuum.