I don't know what Hillary actually believes in.

[karynnj]

166. It is too early and there is no denying she is the most likely Democratic nominee

The polls have listed many possible alternatives, and she gets over 50% of the total. That is not to say that this could not change. It could - in 2005 - 2006, she usually polled in the high 40s - lower than now - but still high enough that it was very likely the nomination was hers.

To win, Obama and his team not only had to run an exceptionally good primary race, they needed things to happen that they did not control. They needed Hillary Clinton to run no better than a mediocre campaign and they needed support from at least some important Democrats. They got both. Clinton's campaign undoubtedly believed the hype that they were the best campaign operatives that the Democratic party had and they made glaring mistakes - most notably not having planned or even really set up for post super Tuesday races because they were so certain that she would clinch things then. Kennedy and Kerry were big gets that the Obama team got.

However, this time they remember 2008. There is no way they won't dot every i and cross every t. In addition, they have more actively worked to push her campaign this year and last than they did in the comparable time. In 2005/2006, I doubt they saw Obama as a threat - if they had they would have found a way to take him down. I doubt that anyone will be able to build up adequate support to be seen as a challenger under the radar this time. Additionally, who are important Democrats whose endorsement in a primary could make people even give a candidate a second look. She was Obama's SoS and he has been supportive though she has recently tried to distance herself. Kennedy is dead, Kerry, as SoS, is out of politics. Others on the left, Dean included have been positive about HRC - maybe because they do not want the Clintons against them and would like a role in government.

You could be right that her popularity could fall when the race actually starts. The best hope for that is Iowa and NH, where it really is retail politics. This is where someone, not favored by the party or media, could win and get momentum going forward. (Three recent examples - Obama, Kerry and Carter. Though Obama was a favorite of some media.)