538 calls the Michigan Senate race pretty much over. [View all]
In every Senate forecast FiveThirtyEight has published this year, Republicans have been slightly favored to take back the chamber. That hasn’t changed with our latest model run: Republicans are a 58 percent favorite.
On Thursday, three surveys confirmed the trend. EPIC-MRA and Lake Research (in a poll for the liberal group Progress Michigan) found Democrat Gary Peters ahead of Republican Terri Lynn Land by 9 percentage points. Mitchell Research put Peters’s advantage at 13 points. Additionally, a Target-Insyght poll this week found Peters up by 10 percentage points. On average, Peters was ahead in these polls by a little over 10 percentage points.
The FiveThirtyEight forecast isn’t ready to put Peters ahead by that much; it projects him to win by 6 percentage points, with an 89 percent chance of winning in November. That’s up from 70 percent at the beginning of September. More impressively, it’s way up from the 55 percent chance FiveThirtyEight gave Peters in its March outlook.
Ten other races are now rated as more competitive than Michigan.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-democrats-wrapping-up-in-michigan/
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