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magical thyme

(14,881 posts)

45. "on average" does not take into consideration individual circumstances

Sat Oct 4, 2014, 05:53 PM

Oct 2014

That is the problem with trying to apply statistics that are intended to determine what is needed to stop the spread of disease to how it works in real life.

In real life, how contagious is it depends on the viral load at the time of exposure, the amount of exposure, the type of exposure and the condition of the exposed person's immune system.

At an individual level, how contagious ebola is varies case by case and person by person.

Dr. Brantly didn't expose anybody else because he immediately self-quarantined. Same with Writebol, Sacra and other medical workers.

However, Duncan exposed everybody he was living with to one degree or another, along with numerous people in the ER on two occasions, plus the 3 EMTs that picked him up by ambulance.

Same with the pregnant woman who died, followed by numerous family members who took care of her dying, and now Duncan critical.

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No, Seriously, How Contagious Is Ebola? [View all] morningfog Oct 2014 OP

I can't tell you how contagious is, but I can tell you how serious it is. lonestarnot Oct 2014 #1

Eh... BlindTiresias Oct 2014 #2

I know you want it to be more contagious, but morningfog Oct 2014 #3

I don't BlindTiresias Oct 2014 #4

Yes the article said all of that. You suggested the morningfog Oct 2014 #6

Sheesh. Over the top much? Old Crow Oct 2014 #12

Context BlindTiresias Oct 2014 #13

Understood. Old Crow Oct 2014 #16

Oh bullshit. Link to it or shut up. morningfog Oct 2014 #17

Drama. Feral Child Oct 2014 #39

Here is an interesting article "can you catch ebola from an infected blanket?" uppityperson Oct 2014 #5

Good info. morningfog Oct 2014 #7

Thank you. I found it in another thread. uppityperson Oct 2014 #8

THIS is the ANSWER. ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ No more media hysteria, shall we? Fred Sanders Oct 2014 #41

And that is determined by a variety of factors. longship Oct 2014 #9

And really all the unhinged people need to do is look at morningfog Oct 2014 #11

I fully expect to see the same idiocy from the denialists/antivaxer/antiscience/ kestrel91316 Oct 2014 #32

I have a question gvstn Oct 2014 #10

Don't worry, Ebola is not contagious,. Zorra Oct 2014 #14

Furthermore BlindTiresias Oct 2014 #15

Thank you. 840high Oct 2014 #19

Link? Thank you. uppityperson Oct 2014 #21

Alright BlindTiresias Oct 2014 #23

You are misstating the information on the CDC website. Old Crow Oct 2014 #25

I don't mean to imply it was intentional or otherwise some shocking secret BlindTiresias Oct 2014 #27

How about an "Oh, you're right--I missed that"? Old Crow Oct 2014 #29

I mean BlindTiresias Oct 2014 #30

Are you asking if I believe the Corrected trend lines are inaccurate? Old Crow Oct 2014 #34

The curve for Uganda, Nigeria and Senegal has flatlined to 0.Ebola controlled. Why do you want to be Fred Sanders Oct 2014 #42

Are you addressing me? Or someone else? Old Crow Oct 2014 #43

Meant for blindtireass. Sorry. Fred Sanders Oct 2014 #44

That is a very interesting link, thank you. I do not see R0 numbers there though uppityperson Oct 2014 #28

I'll try and find better data BlindTiresias Oct 2014 #35

We do not commonly walk barefoot across sharp stones in a common latrine area alphafemale Oct 2014 #18

sigh BlindTiresias Oct 2014 #20

Have you gotten your flu vaccine yet? uppityperson Oct 2014 #22

This week, actually BlindTiresias Oct 2014 #24

That is good, so did I. uppityperson Oct 2014 #26

No case from sweat has yet been documented. Warpy Oct 2014 #33

Not likely. morningfog Oct 2014 #36

R0 is not the only factor. There is no way to quantify kestrel91316 Oct 2014 #31

MY question: EXACTLY HOW did those cured US victims contract it? We've never been told. WinkyDink Oct 2014 #37

They were working in the trenches, so to speak. morningfog Oct 2014 #40

"I guess the question is do they know how they were infected." And that is what scares: Do THEY WinkyDink Oct 2014 #46

The real question Feral Child Oct 2014 #38

"on average" does not take into consideration individual circumstances magical thyme Oct 2014 #45