Prediction: Korean re-unification will happen soon, and suddenly.

[davidpdx]

11. I have lived in South Korea for the past decade, so I'd like to think I know what's going on

First, I would bet if South Korean people were polled they would be against reunification especially on a short timeline. As someone else has mentioned, the cost associated with reunification would be extraordinary. North Korea lacks infrastructure, jobs, a decent education system, and has rampant poverty. The best comparison, the reunification of West and East Germany, would not even come close to an estimation of the costs involved.

Second, there would be a large problem with migration from North to South Korea. I can tell you for sure South Koreans would not be pleased with the idea of that happening. To prevent this, the two Koreas would need to remain separate for a period of time. How long? It could be as few as 5 and as many as 10 to 15 years.

Third, China opposes the reunification of Korea. Sure you can say "well fuck China" (and I agree to a point), but China holds enough power to prevent it from happening. China also makes claims to some of the areas which are part of North Korea, which would complicate things greatly. The Chinese Government have been known to use their people to cause sudden outbursts of nationalism.

Fourth, what type of an interim government would they have? Certainly it could be one run by the Kim family. Would people go along with it or would there be an uprising from North Koreans who felt their country was being meddled with?

As much as I hope for reunification someday, I don't see it happening right now.