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CK_John

(10,005 posts) Mon Oct 6, 2014, 10:08 AM Oct 2014

IMO, at least 7% change their vote preference in the ballot booth and seem to favor the incumbent. [View all]

So there are no accurate polls, people are not lying when the poll is taken but human fear of change kicks in in the voting booth.

So I usually add 5% to the incumbent numbers and it works out most of the time.

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IMO, at least 7% change their vote preference in the ballot booth and seem to favor the incumbent. [View all] CK_John Oct 2014 OP

the conventional polling wisdom is that races tighten at the finish. unblock Oct 2014 #1

I been using my method for a while and if were a gambler I'd be way ahead. CK_John Oct 2014 #2

That's not usually the case FBaggins Oct 2014 #3

Then why do 99.9 members of Congress get reelected, in many cases even dead ones. CK_John Oct 2014 #4

Corrections FBaggins Oct 2014 #6

Because people approve of their own congress critter, but disapprove of others. Savannahmann Oct 2014 #7

It's only our fault Andy823 Oct 2014 #9

i think there's actually a tipping point. unblock Oct 2014 #5

There's something to be said for that FBaggins Oct 2014 #8

I think you're blowing smoke. GeorgeGist Oct 2014 #10