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FBaggins

(28,705 posts)

8. There's something to be said for that

Reply to unblock (Reply #5)

Mon Oct 6, 2014, 11:42 AM

Oct 2014

Non-competitive races fluctuate wildly... because the people who show up are less reflective of the overall electorate.

But if an incumbent is at or below 50% (assuming a 2-way race), then that isn't the case.

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IMO, at least 7% change their vote preference in the ballot booth and seem to favor the incumbent. [View all] CK_John Oct 2014 OP

the conventional polling wisdom is that races tighten at the finish. unblock Oct 2014 #1

I been using my method for a while and if were a gambler I'd be way ahead. CK_John Oct 2014 #2

That's not usually the case FBaggins Oct 2014 #3

Then why do 99.9 members of Congress get reelected, in many cases even dead ones. CK_John Oct 2014 #4

Corrections FBaggins Oct 2014 #6

Because people approve of their own congress critter, but disapprove of others. Savannahmann Oct 2014 #7

It's only our fault Andy823 Oct 2014 #9

i think there's actually a tipping point. unblock Oct 2014 #5

There's something to be said for that FBaggins Oct 2014 #8

I think you're blowing smoke. GeorgeGist Oct 2014 #10