I'm a nurse and I've possibly been exposed to Ebola and I think I maybe should be quarantined

[HereSince1628]

108. It isn't clear to me if it's the same people screaming, but yes, there are people

calling for various travel bans.

As things are, I see two things that are more important than travel bans.

One is breaking the epidemic in Africa, and the other is insuring the US is prepared to deal with the relatively small number of ebola patients that show up in the US, wherever and however they originate.

Ending the epidemic in Africa pretty obviously means lowering potential for unexpectedly importing a case. That's the same goal as a travel ban. Since the outbreak grew serious in March, the number of unplanned imported cases is one.

If the epidemic grows in Africa the number of imported cases is likely to increase proportionate to the epidemic. If it grows 10 times larger, and all other factors remain the same, we might expect a dozen cases. That's still small and because a travel ban would have some leakiness, it must be asked if the ban really provides much increase in security.

Obviously that might change if demographic features of the infected persons in Africa changes.

Shaken American confidence not withstanding, we've still got great places for people to be treated and we have Americans working in the epidemic who may need to return for treatment. The treatment of those persons hasn't increased risk to the public. Treatment of those persons has resulted in availability of plasma to help treat others in the US. On balance, I see no reason to limit planned transportations of persons to suitable American facilities.

Because travel bans can't be perfect, America must be ready with effective responses to identify, isolate and contain any unplanned introduction. We've had a bad experience in the Dallas hospital, but to my knowledge, the measures taken to limit the spread from dozens of potential exposures outside the hospital have worked well. It's pretty clear that the attitude in the US is now one of tightening up protections for health workers. Steps to concentrate expertise and limited resources into a small number of designated treatment centers and to develop capacity to safely transport suspect and proven ebola cases seem to be underway. The dangers to healthcare workers are real, but they are being lessened.

Obviously no one is saying things can't change, or that unexpected changes might need more adaptations in approach and policy. But a run of good outcomes, which I think is a reasonable expectation, will help rebuild confidence, lack of which is current presents the greatest complications/threats to developing effective responses.