Dallas Ebola infection/incubation timeline 10.21.14 [View all]

[morningfog]

Duncan's family and pre-isolation contacts have been cleared and are no longer on the timeline.

Days since Duncan's death (Oct. 8)......13 days -- 76 people provided care to Duncan before his death. As of today, two nurses, Nina Pham and Amber Vinson, have shown symptoms and infection has been confirmed.

Days since Pham showed symptoms (Oct. 10).....11 days -- One person is being observed as having direct contact with Pham after she showed symptoms. She's being treated at NIH in Maryland.

Days since Vinson showed symptoms (Oct. 14)......7 days -- Vinson flew on a commercial flight (with some 100 other passengers) from Cleveland to Dallas with a temperature of 99.4 degrees. She was quarantined and transferred to Emory.

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The incubation period of this strain is 7-10 days in most people who become infected.

Both Pham and Vinson were isolated when they had no symptoms other than a low-grade fever. Their viral load was low and it is unlikely they infected anyone prior to isolation.

The 74 other people in the same class/timeline as Pham and Vinson have passed through the most critical period, now at 13 days. If more post-isolation workers were infected, they would most likely have shown symptoms already. However, they do have another 8 days before the 21 day incubation watch period expires.

Pham's one pre-isolation contact is on their 11th day. They too are exiting the point were they would be most likely to show symptoms if infected. However, they do have 10 days before the 21 day incubation watch period expires.

Vinson's pre-isolation contacts are entering the critical period at 7 days now.

Pham and Vinson are being treated in centers who know what they are doing. It is unlikely any workers there will be infected, even if their current conditions deteriorate.