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In reply to the discussion: Putin is starting to lose it, boxed in by a falling Ruble and falling Oil prices. Lashes out at US.. [View all]Tarheel_Dem
(31,454 posts)The Economic Development Ministry has made substantial revisions to its forecast for economic development parameters downward for 20152017. Under the basic scenario, Russian GDP in 2015 will grow by 1 percent, instead of the earlier expected 2 percent, while inflation will reach 6.5 instead of 5.5 percent.
Furthermore, the ministry's analysts predict a fall in the export of oil, gas and petroleum products. While in 2013, oil and gas exports to countries outside the former Soviet Union stood at $323.4 billion and in 2014, at $ 313.56 billion, in 2015 they may fall to $292.5 billion. The ministry believes that oil prices will reach $9095 per barrel and stabilize there.
"The forecast is indeed extremely pessimistic. It is hard to imagine a worse situation, of course, a global force majeure aside," says managing partner with AKG FinEkspertiza Agvan Mikaelyan.
Furthermore, he continues, the forecast proceeds from the economy's strong dependence on oil and gas and does not envisage any changes in the structure of the economy in the near future.
"If this is how it will be, then the level of pessimism is justified," Mikaelyan adds. In particular, he points out, the authors of the forecast do not expect any real growth in incomes. Furthermore, on key parameters, some analysts' estimates are even more conservative.
http://in.rbth.com/economics/2014/09/02/forecast_for_2014-17_downgraded_by_russian_economic_ministry_37995.html