Fate of Japan and the Whole World Depends on No. 4 Reactor

[MadHound]

14. One thing you're overlooking

Well, several actually, but let's get to the big point you're missing.

Yes, a fire would release a massive amount of radioactive material into the environment. Yes, it would "only" be roughly fifty percent of what has been released on this Earth over time. But that is the the key term, time. While there has been a lot of radioactive material released over the years, if the No. 4 reactor, and all those fuel rods went, we would be getting all that exposure at once, not over the course of seventy years.

This dosage would be spread worldwide, in the atmosphere, in the water. Some would remain airborne for a long, long time, some would sink to the bottom of the ocean(however given Cesium's long half life, this could be the gift that keeps on giving and giving). But a lot of that fallout would come down over land, mainly North America, followed by Europe, and then on from there.

Even if three quarters of this amount were (temporarily) eliminated from human contact by ocean and air, that would still leave roughly 70 million curies to settle on this planet. Let's put that into some perspective.

If this material were to fallout into farmland, it would be taken up by plants, which would then be ingested by humans, or by animals that humans eat. The fatal dosage to kill somebody via ingestion is only 238 microcuries. But first this material has to come down, through the atmosphere, the same atmosphere which we all breathe. It only takes approximately 48 microcuries to be a lethal dose via inhalation.

I'll let you do the math, but suffice it to say, if this all truly went worst case scenario, there would be enough radioactive material coming down over North America to kill every man, woman and child on this continent were they to either inhale or ingest it. Our crops would immediately become unfit for consumption. The air we breathe would become toxic, and would have to be filtered in some very special, and expensive ways. Ordinary filter masks wouldn't do the job, and the equipment that would do the job is in very limited quantity, certainly not enough to protect even one tenth of one percent of our population

That is a huge dose to take, and no, it would not be a local event, it would indeed be a worldwide catastrophe. And besides the immediate effects of such a disaster, we would also be facing long term consequences. After a couple of years aloft, radioactive material would begin to rain down across the face of this Earth. A large portion of our potable water supply would become contaminated, even reaching our groundwater aquifers with time. In short, while humanity probably would survive in certain remote areas, civilization as we know it would collapse.

This is not an overreaction, these aren't anonymous internet posters who are trying to spread panic. These are respected, courageous, recognized experts in their field. Having worked in a nuclear reactor for a number of years, I am perfectly aware of the dangers they are talking about, and the dire consequences that we all face if No. 4 fails catastrophically. To try and downplay this danger is the height of folly, especially if you have no real clue about what you are talking about.