US Ebola infection/incubation timeline 11.1.14 [View all]

[morningfog]

Although the incubation period is up to 21 days, the incubation period of this strain is 7-10 days in most people who become infected.

Duncan-Dallas Line

It has been 24 days since Duncan's death (Oct. 8). There were 76 people who provided care to Duncan before his death. Only two nurses, Nina Pham and Amber Vinson, were infected. Both recovered. No new infections have been reported. All of Duncan's contacts, pre-isolation and post-isolation have survived the incubation period.


Days since Pham was isolated (Oct. 10).....22 days -- The one person being observed as Pham's contact has passed through the incubation period. Pham is now Ebola-free.

Days since Vinson was isolated (Oct. 14)......18 days -- Vinson flew on a commercial flight (with some 100 other passengers) from Cleveland to Dallas with a temperature of 99.4 degrees. She was quarantined and transferred to Emory. Vinson is now Ebola-free. Her pre-isolation contacts will conclude the incubation period in 3 days. No new infections have been reported.

Days since Vinson reported Ebola-free (Oct. 23)......9 days.

Days since Pham confirmed Ebola-free (Oct. 24)......8 days.


Spencer-NYC Line

Days since Dr. Spencer was isolated (Oct. 23).....9 days. Dr. Spencer reported a slight fever, at 100.3, on the night of October 22 and was isolated on the morning of October 23. Dr. Spencer, like Pham and Vinson, was isolated quickly and before he had any symptoms other than a slight fever of 100.3. Any pre-isolation contacts who were infected would likely have shown symptoms by now, or would very soon. However, there is little to no chance that he infected anyone prior to isolation.

______________________________________________________

The above is what I have kept track of based on dates of news reports. Below is a link to the CDC "Cases of Ebola in the US" page. In includes the Dallas contact tracing. According to the CDC, as of October 31, 2014, 10 out of 11 direct contacts to one of the Ebola patients (Duncan, Pham, and/or Vinson) have completed monitoring without infection. There is one still under surveillance.

Of the "possible contacts," 90 of 166 have completed surveillance, with 76 left. The CDC does not give a time line of when surveillance will end, or when it began for any of the numbers. I would assume (could infer) that many of the 76 left are pre-isolation possible contacts of Vinson, but m not sure.

http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/united-states-imported-case.html