I think Democrats are going to do much better than expected in the mid-term elections.

[davsand]

86. I agree, Kentuck. I think a lot of the polling may be flawed.

Something that has quietly been niggling in my reptile brain for a while now is that people have done away with landline phone service in increasing numbers. The people who still maintain landline phone service tend to be older and (typically) more conservative in social issues and in information sources. MOST polling is done via phone calls, therefore, it is possible that the polls now are less accurate than they were even 15 years ago. I'm not a statistical magician, but I will say that in my experience with campaigns, I have yet to see a poll that can avoid over sampling of one population or another, and I have never seen compensating adjustments to polls that were dead on.

MOST of the polling that anybody is talking about is fairly close to (if not admitted to be within) the stated margin of error. The same guys that calculated that adjustment for over sampling are the ones that calculate that MOE, and that makes me cringe if it is my campaigns' polling or the other guys'. I really feel that the races are much closer than anybody is realizing.

I am WAY more worried about this bullshit fund raising "We are SO screwed" tactic that the Dems have been using. I am worried that has done a lot to decrease turnout "Why Bother?" has come up more than once when I've talked to some of the usual Dem voters, and THAT needs to be laid at the DCCC and the DNC's feet. (In fact they need to be slapped upside the head for that...)

If everybody works their turf and turns out our voters, I think Dems will hold the Senate. If everybody sits in their hands and wails we are screwed.


Laura