Michael McDonald: Charlie Crist is headed for a big win. [View all]

[RandySF]

A simple reading of Florida's early vote is that Crist is poised for a big win. In 2010, Gov. Scott squeezed out a +1.1 point win while Republicans enjoyed a +12.7 registration advantage in the early vote. As of Saturday, the Republican advantage stands at +4.1.

There is a an important complication. In 2012, Florida adopted a quasi-permanent absentee status, whereby voters who vote a mail ballot can choose to automatically receive a mail ballot the next election. The Obama campaign, anticipating a reduction of in-person early voting due to a change that year, encouraged their supporters to vote a mail ballot; a good number automatically received a mail ballot in 2014. The consequence of this law is evident in the mail ballots. In 2010, 1,124,431 Floridians cast a mail ballot; in 2014, the number is already 1,733,014. Republicans led mail ballots in 2010 52% to 34%, they lead in 2014 by a narrower 45% to 37%.

In-person early vote is up more modestly, too, 1,184,395 have voted early Saturday with Sunday voting remaining in a few of the larger counties compared with 1,042,759 in 2010. Republicans led the 2010 in-person early vote 45% to 40%, Democrats lead 2014 42% to 41%.

The polls show a narrow lead for Crist over Scott. The outstanding question from the early vote is how many Democrats who voted in 2010 on Election Day have shifted to casting mail ballots in 2014. The in-person early voting, which seems of comparable magnitude, may thus be a better indicator of a Crist lead. I thus believe Crist indeed leads, but would have more confidence in my belief if not for the law change.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-pulling-into_b_6091452.html