General Discussion

SpankMe

(3,725 posts)

24. No...no..a thousand times, NO!!!!

Tue Nov 18, 2014, 04:02 PM

Nov 2014

Do not promote the "Dems-will-take-everything-back-in-2016" predictions too forcefully. That causes too many people to relax under the assumption that it's inevitable. They assume it's going to happen because that's what all the pundits say, then they'll just sit back and "let the others do the voting and donating".

We have to promote the narrative that it's not necessarily a "gimme" in 2016.

Hillary's losing her luster (not her fault; it's unanswered, early Republican attacks) and Rand Paul is looking better to a lot of progressives. Even Bill Mahr said on his show this week that he's "available" to Ron Paul (meaning his vote for a Democrat is not preordained owing to Rand Paul's positions on the wars in the middle east and on drugs and a few other issues where he's on the same page as liberals). A Rand Paul run could really put a chink in our armor if he wins the nomination.

The Republicans have started their new "voter manipulation on steroids" effort to apportion electoral votes in states based on the voting percentages rather than winner take all. With over 30 states that have both legislative houses plus their governorships in the hands of Republicans, there's nothing to stop this from happening nationwide. If solid R states change from winner take all to apportioning, then we may be looking at a permanent Republican executive in the Whitehouse for the rest of history.

No - a Democratic win in 2016 is NOT a sure thing. We have to keep people voting and engaged. That's the only way we will win.

The idea of a solid Republican federal elected leadership (they have the Supreme Court and both houses of Congress, now) scares the ungodly shit out of me.

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Here is the remarkable reporting by Lawrence O'Donnell on the 2016 election [View all] Samantha Nov 2014 OP

The GOP will use the next two years trying to get rid of the the electoral college, or djean111 Nov 2014 #1

I do think they will try but I do not think they will succeed Samantha Nov 2014 #4

They are actively trying to do it in Wisconsin and Michigan LondonReign2 Nov 2014 #11

Yes, I know Samantha Nov 2014 #37

Hard to do their dirty tricks in states they don't control. Tommy2Tone Nov 2014 #79

In Pennsylvania.... CANDO Nov 2014 #89

More voter supression.... Historic NY Nov 2014 #12

ACORN used to do things like that NewJeffCT Nov 2014 #18

I think the Post Office should be allowed to register people to vote Samantha Nov 2014 #41

Registration is a state function,city,village,school district,water district, not a federal function CK_John Nov 2014 #46

This is the ground game.... Historic NY Nov 2014 #62

In rural areas the post office is usually real close to the court house anyway. LiberalArkie Nov 2014 #97

There is no question in my mind that the Electoral College is the only thing saving Republicans Sheepshank Nov 2014 #42

The key is toddwv Nov 2014 #96

Please, I feel like it's 2007 again and people are saying Bush will declare himself Calista241 Nov 2014 #90

I would say the blue wall is more like 242 EVs bluestateguy Nov 2014 #2

He said he thinks we can count Virginia now as behind the Blue Wall Samantha Nov 2014 #5

RE GOP 2014 Victories liberal from boston Nov 2014 #10

The GOP has lost New Mexico for good LordGlenconner Nov 2014 #27

I believe I read in that article he moved New Hampshire behind the blue wall Samantha Nov 2014 #38

I found Ladd very clear and trying to change things by warning people. As for O'Donnell, I found him Mass Nov 2014 #3

Just remember it is not O'Donnell's analysis Samantha Nov 2014 #7

I agree. Two things made this past election hurt more than it normally would... Liberal_Stalwart71 Nov 2014 #30

I would love to see a Sanders/Warren ticket Samantha Nov 2014 #39

Voter turnout over all was davidpdx Nov 2014 #86

Yep. Agreed! :) Liberal_Stalwart71 Nov 2014 #98

While we're remembering things... FBaggins Nov 2014 #84

The only chance the GOP has is electoral college gerrymandering. MohRokTah Nov 2014 #6

Can they redraw those districts before the next census? That is in 2020 Samantha Nov 2014 #8

Historically, redistricting only occurs after the census MohRokTah Nov 2014 #9

I thought the Supreme Court struck down the Texas gerrymandering law. Liberal_Stalwart71 Nov 2014 #33

I think they did redo it and the SC struck it down Samantha Nov 2014 #44

That was the Gerrymander they did in 2010. MohRokTah Nov 2014 #55

How would their chances improve dramatically if none of the states they do this in are blue states Samantha Nov 2014 #43

Moving it to one elector per House district, + two electors to the candidate with the most votes. MohRokTah Nov 2014 #50

I went back and re-listened to the video Samantha Nov 2014 #73

They don't have to do anything with the districts SickOfTheOnePct Nov 2014 #16

But they will still have the same number, right Samantha Nov 2014 #45

Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Florida are definite 2016 blue states. MohRokTah Nov 2014 #51

He did not have Florida behind the Blue Wall -- at least not on Lawrence's map Samantha Nov 2014 #59

How are they definitively blue states... FBaggins Nov 2014 #85

GOP Control came about from midterm elections MohRokTah Nov 2014 #88

Is this a new definition of "solidly blue"? FBaggins Nov 2014 #93

The number of electoral votes would be the same SickOfTheOnePct Nov 2014 #52

Gerrymandering only takes place every 10 years. They can't do anything until 2020. Liberal_Stalwart71 Nov 2014 #31

You really don't get the electoral college. MohRokTah Nov 2014 #53

They can change allocation of electoral votes at any time SickOfTheOnePct Nov 2014 #54

All Based on the Assumption allinthegame Nov 2014 #13

I agree. You can't win a damn thing if voters don't vote ffr Nov 2014 #17

I would love to get rid of them(Rs)... freebrew Nov 2014 #28

Not to mention, the M$M NEVER bothered to correct the record on Benghazi or IRS Liberal_Stalwart71 Nov 2014 #35

They also do not mention while these Keystone votes are being taken Samantha Nov 2014 #47

That's because the cowards in the Democratic Party ran away from a successful record AND Liberal_Stalwart71 Nov 2014 #34

Yes, it did -- and with regard to MSNBC, it is the Comcast influence Samantha Nov 2014 #48

Corporate (conservative) Democrats davidpdx Nov 2014 #87

Damn I hope he is right! hueymahl Nov 2014 #14

So do I Samantha Nov 2014 #49

God, I so hope this comes to fruition! Hulk Nov 2014 #15

BUT, there would have to be enough Democrats willing to do what needs to be done. Maineman Nov 2014 #25

Hillary Clinton will have a lot of company if she runs Hari Seldon Nov 2014 #19

how dems can get supermajorities in both houses, and president- cut samson's hair certainot Nov 2014 #20

I read your post 3 times and I think you have some good ideas Samantha Nov 2014 #69

ah bullshit Cosmocat Nov 2014 #21

You have a huge dose of pessimism there Samantha Nov 2014 #56

A couple of things Cosmocat Nov 2014 #91

---Better still, it doesn't matter who the Democrats run, they win.--- LawDeeDah Nov 2014 #22

O'Donnell said each Republican potential candidate has faded Samantha Nov 2014 #76

Warren or Sanders? It is time. alfredo Nov 2014 #23

No...no..a thousand times, NO!!!! SpankMe Nov 2014 #24

I am not trying to do that -- Ladd (a Republican) just stated the obvious Samantha Nov 2014 #58

The Electoral College need this modification. rickford66 Nov 2014 #26

In theory I agree, but historically Republicans have shown a pattern of pinpointing where the Samantha Nov 2014 #57

The main reason for my idea is rickford66 Nov 2014 #78

GOP will do a ton of irreparable damage in two years so they can secure the Country so glinda Nov 2014 #29

They're already trying to split up the electoral votes in some states IronLionZion Nov 2014 #32

But here is the point - they can't do that in the true blue states Samantha Nov 2014 #60

R#41 & K for, sounds GREAT!1 & this is via Horrible Human(?) Laura INGRAHAM?!1 n/t UTUSN Nov 2014 #36

That may be true....and it does make sense, but..... AverageJoe90 Nov 2014 #40

That is why we need a candidate voters salivate over (as we did with candidate Barack Obama) Samantha Nov 2014 #61

One possible strategy is to scream bloody murder about popular vote Generic Other Nov 2014 #63

I hope we could stop them from doing this but I am not sure we can Samantha Nov 2014 #64

Misses the point of the Republican victories. Orsino Nov 2014 #65

I do not assume President Obama will sign legislation with poison pills embedded Samantha Nov 2014 #70

I assume that the next farm bill will be highly toxic, for example. Orsino Nov 2014 #94

YEP Cosmocat Nov 2014 #92

Bush and Abbott did well in TX with hispanics. I think he is too optimistic about them voting Dem. freshwest Nov 2014 #66

Here it is: THE BLUE WALL MAP (screen shot from video) Samantha Nov 2014 #67

There are 10 Democratic Senate seats up in 2016, not one n/t SickOfTheOnePct Nov 2014 #68

I went back and re-listened to the video Samantha Nov 2014 #72

I see two that could be competetive: bornskeptic Nov 2014 #83

Is there anything Obama can do by executive order to ensure people have the right to vote? Voice for Peace Nov 2014 #71

I think the only thing he can do is refer problems to the Civil Rights Division of the DOJ Samantha Nov 2014 #75

Possible. But not certain. Savannahmann Nov 2014 #74

What can I say -- Rand Paul has changed with the times Samantha Nov 2014 #77

I would agree. Savannahmann Nov 2014 #80

He also knows they will show their ignorant asses and we will hate them all the more. lonestarnot Nov 2014 #81

Michigan GOP is trying to game the 2016 election. longship Nov 2014 #82

Republicans have 2 years to Gerrymander the presidential election LynneSin Nov 2014 #95